000 AGXX40 KNHC 190648 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 148 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO 23N94W INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED RW CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT N OF 26N AND S OF 22N WITH ISOL EMBEDDED TS POSSIBLE DURING INCREASED HEATING LATER THIS MORNING...AND IS DEPICTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED E OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE 15 KT NE FLOW W OF THE FRONT AT SUNRISE WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N...WITH THE WINDS GRADUALLY CLOCKING TO THE E TONIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING BACK TO ABOUT 15 KT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW TODAY WITH THE N SEGMENT MOVING E OF THE AREA OVER FL ON THIS EVENING...WHILE THE PORTION S OF 27N STALLS ACROSS THE SE GULF. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W ACROSS THE SE AND S-CENTRAL GULF ON SAT. A STRONG AND RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF AROUND SUNRISE ON SAT AND TRANSVERSE THE ENTIRE GULF BY SUNRISE ON SUN. STRONG TO NEAR GALE POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW GULF ON SAT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 21-26N ON SAT NIGHT WITH THE GALE CONDITIONS SHIFTING FURTHER S TO ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 21N W OF 94W ON SUN. STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS THE E GULF ON SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL DIMINISH FROM THE W WITH SE 20 KT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN ACROSS THE NW GULF LATE MON NIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A GALE WARNING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE NW GULF FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE CONTINUES OVER THE SW GULF AT 13N81W WITH A CORRESPONDING 1007 MB SURFACE LOW. UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE LARGE TS CLUSTERS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER THROUGH FRI THEN MOVE W AND INLAND FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 360 NM N OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ON FRI THROUGH SUN. THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF NE-E 20-25 KT FLOW WILL RESUME WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ON FRI NIGHT. LONG PERIOD N AND NE SWELL...RESULTING IN 7-9 FT SEAS...WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...THEN SHIFT S ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A CYCLONE IS DRIFTING S ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUB-TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLY WINDS...SEAS TO 17 FT...ROTATING S ACROSS THE W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 55-62W. THESE N WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT ON FRI. BROAD HIGH PRESS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE-E SWELL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST THIS EVENING AND STALL FROM 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE FRI WITH STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N W OF 76W BRIEFLY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT NIGHT...MERGE WITH THE INITIAL FRONT ON SUN... WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY REACHING FROM 31N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUN NIGHT...FROM BERMUDA TO SE BAHAMAS ON MON AFTERNOON...THEN STALL FROM 31N59W TO HISPANIOLA AROUND SUNRISE ON TUE. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE MERGED FRONT ON SUN THEN DIMINISH FROM THE NW ON MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WATCH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WATCH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.