000 AGXX40 KNHC 180700 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND ECMWF USED FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW GULF WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF A 1004 MB LOW PRES CENTER ALONG THE TX COASTAL BEND. SE-SE 20-25 KT FLOW CONTINUES N OF 25N E OF THE FRONT WITH MAX SEAS OF 10 FT. A SMALL AREA OF NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS EXIST ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 23N97W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH A POSITION FROM THE EXTREME W FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND NOON TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF THE FRONT DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT. THE MAXIMUM POST FRONTAL NW-NW FLOW WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 19.5N96W AND PERSIST IN THAT AREA THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW ALONG A POSITION FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO 25N87W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT MIDDAY THU...WITH N-NE 15-20 KT FLOW DEVELOPING N OF 24N W OF THE FRONT. THE N SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA OVER FL ON THU NIGHT WHILE THE PORTION S OF 27N STALLS ACROSS THE SE GULF. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W ACROSS THE SE GULF ON SAT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE SAT ACCOMPANIED BY N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW WHICH WILL FOLLOW THIS FAST MOVING FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF...AND ABSORBING THE INITIAL FRONTAL REMNANTS...BY SUNRISE ON SUN. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUN WITH ONLY NE 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N BY SUNRISE ON MON. A BROAD NW-SE ORIENTATED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM EXTREME NE MEXICO TO THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT WITH A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT S OF 23N ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. ECMWF AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF AT 12N82W WITH A CORRESPONDING 1007 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 11.5N81W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION BETWEEN 72-79W. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND EARLY SAT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 420 NM NE OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THU THEN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ON FRI THROUGH SUN. THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF NE-E 20-25 KT FLOW WILL RESUME WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ON FRI NIGHT. LONG PERIOD NE SWELL...RESULTING IN 7-8 FT SEAS...WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS.. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF FRONT ARE STILL EVIDENT W OF 60W BETWEEN 25-27.5N WITH THE PORTION W OF 75W NOW LIFTING N AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. EXPECT E-SE FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY TODAY AND SPREAD S ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N W OF 65W BY THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FL COAST. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON FRI. LATEST GUIDANCE THEN STALLS THE FRONT BRIEFLY ON SAT TILL A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT NIGHT AND MERGES WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY SUN...WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 31N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUN NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.