000 AGXX40 KNHC 171955 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN ECMWF/GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND THROUGH THE FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF W OF 88W HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 25-30 KT WITH SEVERAL ELEVATED PLATFORMS...42361 AND 42362 REPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS. SEAS HAVE BEEN IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE WITH BUOY 42020 REPORTING 10 FT SEAS AROUND 15-16Z. THE NWW3 WAS INITIALIZED ABOUT 2 FEET TOO LOW OVER THE NW GULF...AGAIN REFLECTING THE TYPICALLY LOW BIAS OF THE MWW3 IN SHALLOWER BATHYMETRY. AS OF 18Z THE COLD FRONT HAS EMERGED OFF THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND PORT ARANSAS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ EARLY WED AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU...THEN STALL FROM W-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST AND ALONG THE E COAST OF MEXICO ON FRI. GFS ONCE AGAIN IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET. A NARROW RIBBON OF POST- FRONTAL NLY 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE SE TX COAST THIS EVENING WILL SWEEP SWD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE/VERACRUZ ON WED WITH PEAK WINDS LOCALLY 30 KT ON WED. WINDS VEER AND QUICKLY DIMINISH THU AND FRI. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF LATE SAT AND EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO BY LATE SAT...AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO 24N95W TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SUN. ALL GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT TO 20-25 KT...WITH THE UKMET DEPICTING THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THE 12Z SUITE...30 KT. THE ATTENDANT WAVE MODELS RESPOND IN KIND WITH THE UKMET WAVE MODEL DEPICTING SEAS TO 12 FT WHILE THE NWW3 SHOWS A MORE MODEST 8-9 FT. A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR WINDS AND SEAS HAS BEEN UTILIZED FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 IN THE FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH THU...THEN ECMWF/GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND THROUGH THE FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND NOAA BUOYS. THE AREA OF WINDS ARE DISPLACED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 14N AND 17N AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. OVERALL...MWW3 AND OFFICIAL GRIDS APPEAR IN LINE WITH THE SEAS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING 7.5 FT SEAS IN AN AREA OF FORECAST 7 FT SEAS. OVERALL GRADIENT RELAXES ON TUE AS THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS. THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU/FRI. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH FRI WITH AN AREA OF NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACCOMPANYING THE LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND COSTA RICA ON SAT...THEN EMERGING INTO THE EAST PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH THU...THEN ECMWF/GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND THROUGH THE FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SHEAR LINE/STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 25N65W TO 27N70W AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N OF THE AREA WITH SWATH OF EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC S OF 30N WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MWW3 APPEARS TO BE WELL INITIALIZED PER RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER PASS. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/SHEAR LINE WILL LIFT N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT TONIGHT WITH SE RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND WED. AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE WED AND THU...A BROAD SWATH OF 20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS 8-9 FT SPREAD OVER THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 65W. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT N OF 31N WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FL COAST BETWEEN 00Z-03Z FRI. AS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FASTER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT. A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS TIMING PLACES THE FRONT FROM 31N73W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA BY LATE FRI...THEN PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE COAST ON SAT WITH CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE OVER THE NW ATLC SUN. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER. FOR NOW WILL TEMPER CYCLOGENESIS ON SUN AND WAIT TO SEE IF THIS APPEARS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT WHATEVER DEVELOPS OVER THE SW N ATLC THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE ENERGIZED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING IN ITS WAKE TO 20-25 KT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.