000 AGXX40 KNHC 161949 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 249 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN ECMWF/GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND THROUGH THE FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE VEERING TO THE ESE AND HAVE DIMINISHED WITH MOST PLATFORMS REPORTING WINDS AROUND 15 KT. THESE WINDS WERE ALSO REFLECTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES IN THE AREA. SEAS WERE GENERALLY 4 TO 5 FT...WITH A FEW REPORTS OF 6 FT OFF THE TEXAS COAST. WAVE WATCH APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL OVER MOST OF THE GULF...AND ABOUT 1-2 FT TOO OVER LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST/NW GULF...REFLECTING THE TYPICALLY LOW BIAS OF THE MWW3 IN SHALLOWER BATHYMETRY. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT AND TUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND 18Z. THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON THIS. THE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON THE TIME AFTER TUE WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE UKMET/ECMWF. LEANING TOWARD GFS TIMING GIVEN PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ EARLY WED AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU...THEN STALL FROM W-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST AND ALONG THE E COAST OF MEXICO ON FRI. A NARROW RIBBON OF POST-FRONTAL NLY 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE SE TX COAST TUE EVENING WILL SWEEP SWD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ON WED. BIG SHIFT IN THE GFS IS THE ABSENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS THIS CYCLE IN THE FAR SW GULF. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND IS PREFERRED. A REINFORCING FRONT MOVES SWEEPS INTO THE GULF LATE SAT AND EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 22N95W AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE SAT. THE GFS/MWW3 APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THE LONG LEAD TIME...PREFER TO BLEND THE ECMWF/GFS AND ATTENDANT WAVE MODELS AT THIS TIME AND TEMPER THE WINDS/SEAS FOR NOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH THU...THEN ECMWF/GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND THROUGH THE FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND NOAA BUOYS. MWW3 AND OFFICIAL GRIDS APPEAR TO BE A FOOT LOW ON THE SEAS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING 12 FT SEAS IN AN AREA OF FORECAST 10-11 FT SEAS. OVERALL GRADIENT RELAXES ON TUE AS THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS. THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...THOUGH THE GFS IS PRESENTING A WEAKER SOLUTION VERSUS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THIS IS PREFERRED. NONETHELESS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH FRI WITH AN AREA OF NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACCOMPANYING THE LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND COSTA RICA ON SAT...THEN EMERGING INTO THE EAST PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH THU...THEN ECMWF/GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND THROUGH THE FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. STATIONARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 25N65W TO SE FLORIDA WITH SWATH OF EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC S OF 28N WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MWW3 APPEARS TO BE WELL INITIALIZED PER RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER PASS. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT BEGINNING LATE TUE WITH SE RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A BROAD SWATH OF NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS 8-9 FT N OF 25N W OF 65W BY LATE WED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT N OF 31N WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FL COAST BETWEEN 12Z-16Z THU. AS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FASTER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT. A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS TIMING PLACES THE FRONT FROM 31N78W TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA LATE THU...AND FROM 31N73W TO E-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING STRONGER NLY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT. THE DIFFERENCES ARE MAINLY DUE TO TIMING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE. FOR NOW A COMPROMISE SOLUTION IS PREFERRED WITH MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.