000 AGXX40 KNHC 160620 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A BROAD AND VERY CONVECTIVE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM SW FLORIDA TO ACROSS FL BAY TO NEAR DRY TORTUGAS. AN ENE TO WSW RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE NW GULF AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW MEXICO RESULTING IN 15-20 KT RETURN FLOW ALREADY ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH ELEVATED PLATFORMS REPORTING 20-25 KT. THE LOW WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OFF THE TX COAST AT MIDDAY TUE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE MIDDAY WED...THEN SLOW AS IT CONTINUES E ON THU EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS ON THU NIGHT WITH THE REMNANTS DRIFTING W ON FRI. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 20-25 KT SE FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT NE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT BRIEFLY ON TUE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW EXPECTED AT 20- 25 KT ALONG THE SE TX COAST ON TUE EVENING...THEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT S ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST EARLY TUE INCREASING BRIEFLY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR 19.5N96W ON WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO ABOUT 10 FT ON WED NIGHT IN THE GALE AREA...BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATE WED NIGHT. A NE-SW ORIENTATED TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM EXTREME NE MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI WITH NE-E 10-15 KT EVERYWHERE NE OF THE TROUGH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MED CONFIDENCE. ATLC HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 11 FT NEAR 13N76W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON TUE AS THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH THE GFS AND NAM MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ARRAY OF OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE LOW MEANDER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH FRI WITH FRESH NE-E FLOW WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD MOVE W AND INLAND COSTA RICA ON SAT...THEN MOST LIKELY CONTINUING IN THE EPAC NEAR 08N86W ON THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS.. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 25N75W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS S FL. FRESH E WINDS ARE FORECAST BOTH N AND S OF THE FRONT EXCEPT 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT BEGINNING ON TUE NIGHT WITH SE RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE WARM FRONT...ROUGHLY TO THE N OF 27N W OF 67W. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SHIFT N OF 31N ON WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FL COAST REACHING FROM 31N76W TO FORT PIERCE FL ON THU NIGHT...THEN BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT. MODERATE NLY FLOW W OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO FRESH ON FRI NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WATCH WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.