000 AGXX40 KNHC 150800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH WED...THEN LATEST ECMWF/GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR EVERGLADES CITY FLORIDA TO 24N90W WHICH BECOMES DIFFUSE W OF 90W. A TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF TAMPICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH MARINE PLATFORMS AND A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS REPORTING SEAS OF 5-7 FT...WITH ISOLATED REPORTS OF 8 FT. ONCE AGAIN THE LATEST NWW3 INITIALIZED THE AREA OF SEAS QUITE WELL. STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E TODAY AND MON AND ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO THE SE ON MON. RETURN FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT...LOCALLY 30 KT...AS DEPICTED BY THE GS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE GULF BY LATE TUE WITH THE NWW3 BUILDING SEAS TO 10 FT...ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 18Z-21Z TUE. BY LATE WED AND THU MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF/UKMET SOMEWHAT SLOWER. A BLEND OF THE MODELS SUGGESTS THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR APPALACHICOLA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED AND FROM W-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE THU. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW DENSER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FUNNELING TO THE VERACRUZ COAST BY EARLY WED WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 18Z WED. GFS PREFERRED SINCE IT PERFORMS THE BEST IN THESE SCENARIOS. DESPITE THE HIGHER WINDS IN THE GFS...NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 8-9 FT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ABOUT 1-2 FT LOWER THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET WAVE MODELS. PREFER THEIR SOLUTION AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE WAVE HEIGHTS ACCORDINGLY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH WED...THEN LATEST ECMWF/GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW...MAINLY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A 0240 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA...AND 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND THE EDGE OF THE PASS. NWW3 INITIALIZED WELL PER 9-10 FT SEAS REPORTED AT BUOY 42058. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE MON THEN DIMINISH ON TUE AS THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AHEAD OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GFS HINTS AT ONE MORE NIGHT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BEFORE RELAXING TO 25 KT OVER SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/MON. LOOKING AHEAD...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF PANAMA. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT...SHOWING DEEPENING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERS THIS WITH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF AND UKMET GUIDANCE. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN LATEST ECMWF/GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO 27N71W THEN STATIONARY TO NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY W OF 75W...AND ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA NE 20-25 KT WINDS SPREAD EASTWARD TO ALONG 70W LATER TODAY AND REMAIN SO IN A RIBBON TO THE N OF THE FRONT WITH NWW3 BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS INTO MON. THE RIDGE WEAKENS LATE MON AND TUE...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY EARLY TUE BEFORE INCREASING AND VEERING TO THE ESE AT 20-25 KT BY LATE TUE OVER AREAS W OF 70W. THE WINDS EXPAND EASTWARD AND COVER ALL AREAS N OF 27N WED WITH NWW3 BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT OVER A BROAD AREA NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE WED NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. A BLEND OF THE MODELS BRINGS THE FRONT OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AROUND 06Z- 09Z AND EXTENDING FROM 31N77W TO DAYTONA BEACH BY LATE THU. MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING WEAKER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE NE TO E FLOW WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE. THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE WAVE HEIGHTS HOWEVER BY MID WEEK IN THE WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE ECWAVE AND UKWAVE REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE WW3...SHOWING NORTHERLY SWELL PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BLEND OF THE WAVE MODELS IN THIS AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.