000 AGXX40 KNHC 141951 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 251 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHARP BUT FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF FOLLOWING BEHIND A MORE VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LIFTING NE THROUGH CAROLINAS. THIS IS ALLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM SW FLORIDA TO 24N96W...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG RIDGING WILL SHIFT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...SUPPORTING FRESH NE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF TODAY AS NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS REMAIN ONGOING OFF THE VERACRUZ COAST...ALTHOUGH LATEST REPORTS FROM ISLA DE SACRAFICIO OFF VERACRUZ SHOW THE WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL VEER MORE E TO SE ACROSS THE GULF AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EASTWARD. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE BY LATE MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS EARLY TUE. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING WINDS TO 30 KT OVER THE NW GULF AND THE LATEST ECMWF IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE WIND INTENSITY. THE GFS IS SHOWING THE DENSER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FUNNELING TO THE VERACRUZ COAST BY EARLY WED WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE. THE SREF DOES NOT GO OUT THIS FAR IN TIME YET...BUT IT IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE PATTERN TO GET GALES IN THAT AREA...AT LEAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. MWW3IS ONLY GETTING TO 8 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHERE THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BY MID WEEK. THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT FRONT...AND THE FORECAST FAVORS 9 OR EVEN 10 FT NOTED IN THE ECWAVE AND UKWAVE FOR WED INTO THU OVER THE WESTERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT LOSING STEAM AND SLOWING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE GULF THROUGH THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN LATEST ECMWF/GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL OVER SW CARIBBEAN. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW...MAINLY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS PROBABLY REACHED 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING WITH ADDED SUPPORT FROM LOCAL DRAINAGE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL REPEAT TONIGHT...WITH THE ADDITION OF FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL. THE STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AHEAD OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT BY EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOOKING AHEAD...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF PANAMA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING BY LATE TUE. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SO FAR WITH THE DEVELOPMENT...SHOWING DEEPENING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERS THIS WITH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF AND UKMET GUIDANCE. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN LATEST ECMWF/GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL INCREASE STARTING TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SEAS WILL REACH 8 FT IN ATLANTIC WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO INCLUDE THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE WEAKENS THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING E TO SE WINDS INCREASING NORTH OF 27N BY LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE WED NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THE FRONT STALL AND WEAKENS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NE FLORIDA. MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE. THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE WAVE HEIGHTS HOWEVER BY MID WEEK IN THE WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE ECWAVE AND UKWAVE REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE WW3...SHOWING NORTHERLY SWELL PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BLEND OF THE WAVE MODELS IN THIS AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.