000 AGXX40 KNHC 140826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 326 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN LATEST ECMWF/GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS THROUGH 24N90W TO 24N96W...THEN CURVES SOUTHWARD AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 18N95W. ASCAT A/B PASSES INDICATED 20-25 KT NE WINDS BRIDGING THE FRONT OVER THE GULF. THESE WINDS WERE CONFIRMED BY MARINE PLATFORMS OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF. SEAS WERE GENERALLY 5-7 FT N OF THE FRONT WITH NWW3 INITIALIZING THE WAVE FIELD QUITE WELL. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IMPACTING THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E THROUGH MON AND ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO THE ESE LATE SUN AND MON AT 15-20 KT OVER MOST AREAS. WINDS INCREASE TUE OVER THE NW AND N-CENTRAL GULF TO 20-25 KT...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING 30 KT WINDS OVER THE NW GULF TUE AFTERNOON. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING SEAS 8-10 FT OVER THE NW GULF AS WELL. THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 18Z-21Z TUE. THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE MARGINALLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT IN THE GULF. INITIAL SURGE OF NW-N WINDS 20-30 KT RAPIDLY DIMINISHES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BUT CONTINUES S OF 24N AND ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN LATEST ECMWF/GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS HAS THE BEST INITIALIZATION OF THE WIND FIELD OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS COMPARED TO THE 0302 UTC ASCAT-B PASS IN THE AREA WHICH DEPICTS 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE AREA. OVERALL THE GFS TENDS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE AREA WERE WELL INITIALIZED BY THE GFS/GRIDDED MODEL BLEND WITH A 0530 UTC ALTIMETER PASS VERIFYING THIS. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA WILL DRIVE THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BY LATE TUE AND WED...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH THE MERGING OF HIGH PRES MUCH FARTHER N WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE E-SE TUE AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS REMAINS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL TO DEVELOP BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LATE WED AND THU...IT IS TRENDING AWAY FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FULL FLEDGED TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN. AS SUCH THE ECMWF/UKMET APPEAR TO BE A BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN LATEST ECMWF/GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING LIGHT BUT SHIFTING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SE AND EXTEND FROM 30N65W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE SAT AND FROM 26N65W TO THE SAME AREA BY LATE SUN. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. SYNOPTICALLY HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING E THROUGH THE UNITED STATES TO THE MID-ATLC COAST THROUGH MON WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED IN A LARGER HIGH PRES SYSTEM FARTHER N. THE EASTWARD MIGRATING HIGH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE REMNANT STALLED FRONT WITH NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS TUE AND WED WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SE W OF 75W BY LATE WED. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES PULSING ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN AND MON...GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUE AND WED AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT IS FOCUSED FURTHER N OVER THE SW N ATLC. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.