000 AGXX40 KNHC 131837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 137 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN LATEST ECMWF/UKMET BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IMPACTING THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 24N96W INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS BRINGING FRESH NE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 27N...WITH THE 1552 ASCAT-B PASS SHOWING A FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. THE GFS GENERALLY PERFORMS WITH FUNNELING N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH SUN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRESH TO STRONG N-NW BREEZE HERE DURING THAT PERIOD. ITS STRONGER FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...REACHING THE MIDATLC COAST MON. THIS WILL DRIVE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS NE WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF MON AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGREE ON TAKING THE SURFACE FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE...BUT THE GFS QUICKLY BECOMES A SLOW AND WEAK OUTLIER WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE UKMET AND GEFS MEAN AGREEING WITH THE ECMWF ON A FASTER SOLUTION. HEDGE THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/UKMET TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PREFERENCE FOR A FASTER AND STRONGER SCENARIO IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN LATEST ECMWF/UKMET BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 12Z GFS IS PERFORMING BEST COMPARED TO THE 1458 UTC ASCAT-A PASS IN THE CARIBBEAN WHICH SHOWS A FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND A FRESH E-NE BREEZE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS IN THESE LOCATIONS. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE GFS SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH THE DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UNITED STATES...REACHING THE MIDATLC COAST MON BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN A LARGER HIGH TO THE N. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA WILL DRIVE THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BY TUE...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH THE MERGING OF THE DRIVING HIGH WITH HIGH PRES MUCH FARTHER N WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE E-SE TUE AND WED. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE FASTER AND STRONGER ECMWF/UKMET WERE PREFERRED WHEN ADJUSTING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ALSO IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING N OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ON THU...JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF/UKMET SEEMED LIKE A BETTER OPTION THAN THE GFS FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM TUE ONWARD. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION ABOVE...THE GFS IS PREFERRED WITH THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM MOVING E THROUGH THE UNITED STATES TO THE MIDATLC COAST THROUGH MON WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED IN A LARGER HIGH PRES SYSTEM FARTHER N. THE EASTWARD MIGRATING HIGH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE STRETCHED E-W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA SUN...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE EXPECTED AND SEAS TO 10 FT JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SHOULD PULSE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH MON AS WELL. BY WED EVE...THE GFS BECOMES A SLOWER OUTLIER WITH THE NEXT FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IMPACTS THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE GFS HOLDS THE RIDGE FARTHER NW THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TUE AND ALLOWS THE PRES GRADIENT TO REMAIN STRONGER LONGER OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE ECMWF AND UKMET DIMINISH WINDS AND TURN THEM SOUTHEASTERLY MORE RAPIDLY IN THE FAR W WATERS THAN THE WED NIGHT COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS. THE ECMWF/UKMET WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST FROM TUE ONWARD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.