000 AGXX40 KNHC 130755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH 27N90W TO 25N95.5W WHERE IT TURNS SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH AS CAA ADVANCES SOUTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE. MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF N OF THE FRONT AND W OF 90W WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-7 FT. BUOY 42002 PULSED TO 8 FT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. NWW3 CONTINUES TO INITIALIZE ABOUT 1-2 FT TOO LOW ON THE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE NW GULF AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE GULF AND EXTEND FROM SW FLORIDA TO 24N96W THEN DRAPE SWD TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. A BROAD SWATH OF NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL COVER THE GULF W OF 87W IN THE WAKE OF AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN ISOLATED AREAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL FROM NEAR EXTREME SW FLORIDA TO 23N96W TO NEAR 19N95W BY SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATED. AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FURTHER E...THE AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS WILL SHIFT E AND COVER A MAJORITY OF THE GULF E OF 95W ON SUN AND E OF 90W SUN NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESS MOVES NE OF THE AREA WINDS VEER TO THE SE AND DIMINISH OVER THE GULF ON MON...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT E OF 94W AND SE TO S 20-25 KT W OF 94W IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT...WITH GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WITH THIS NEXT FEATURE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS APPROACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...CURRENTLY NEAR/ALONG 82W. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR N PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW OVER THE WEST CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA LATER TODAY AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND SAT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE FRESH TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE. SEAS ARE UP TO 8-9 FT IN THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THEIR MAXIMUM EXTENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN...BEFORE SHRINKING IN AREA MON/EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL MAXIMUM WINDS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES AND 5-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE TO FRESH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NW-N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THEN. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 26N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS WITH WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 29N75W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 62W WITH LIGHT BUT SHIFTING WINDS ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED INCREASING SW WINDS OFF THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N67W TO NEAR THE SPACE COAST BY THIS EVENING...AND FROM 28N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY SAT EVENING...THEN STALLING AND WEAKENING ALONG 26N FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS N OF THE FRONT W OF 73W BY SAT EVENING...THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AND ENCOMPASSING ALL AREAS S OF 27N INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT JUST E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS BY MON NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE ESE AND EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BASIN BASIN BY TUE. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE-LIKE FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE BASIN BY MID-WEEK...AND IS NOW LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF DEVELOPMENT MUCH FURTHER E OVER THE HIGH SEAS AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.