000 AGXX40 KNHC 121757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1257 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N87W. MEANWHILE A NEW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW GULF AND N CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. PATCHY FOG WAS ALSO NOTED BY IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MAINLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH 1-2 FT SEAS EXCEPT 2-3 FT IN THE SW GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP ACROSS THE GULF REACHING FROM NEAR 29N88W TO 26N93W TO 22N96W TO 18N95W BY FRI MORNING...THEN WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND STALL FROM NEAR SW FLORIDA TO 23N94W TO NEAR 18N94W BY SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL WASH OUT. STRONG HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS DOMINATING THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT BY SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SE-S IN THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DRAGGED TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STAY WELL N OF THE BASIN. THAT NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY TUE INTO WED...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT ARE PRESENT THUS RESULTING IN A LOWERING OF CONFIDENCE WITH THIS NEXT FEATURE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS RECENTLY EXITED THE BASIN HAVING MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY NEAR/ALONG 78W. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT W OF THE WAVE AXIS AS THESE FEATURES INTERACT WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE. SEAS ARE UP TO 8-10 FT IN THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL PORTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES AND 5-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE TO FRESH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NW-N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THEN. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N59W TO 27N74W THEN STATIONARY TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. MEANWHILE 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 29N76W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 70W. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS E OF THE FRONT FROM 22N TO 27N. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL S OF 22N. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE E WHILE THE PORTION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS STALLS AND WASHES OUT BY FRI MORNING. THE HIGH AND AN ATTENDANT RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE E-SE TO ALONG 27N BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER. THAT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N72W TO NEAR THE SPACE COAST BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON... FROM 30N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY SAT MORNING...THEN STALLING AND WEAKENING ALONG 26N FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. NEW HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN W OF 65W BY SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT JUST E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS BY MON NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION BY EARLY TUE. MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARISE THEREAFTER WITH THE GFS INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE-LIKE FEATURE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE OTHER GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DISCOUNT SUCH AN EVOLUTION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.