000 AGXX40 KNHC 120846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 346 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE BASIN PAST SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES TO BECOME SLOWLY ERODED BY S/W ENERGY RIDING ACROSS RIDGE TO THE NW...WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY BEING SHEARED AND STRETCHED NE...NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GULF. RIDGE TO FLATTEN FURTHER NEXT 24 HRS AND SHIFT ENE INTO ATLC AS STRONG S/W MOVING INTO PAC NW MOVES INTO PHASE WITH DEEP LAYERED VORTEX APPROACHING GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW REACHING TEXAS COAST AND RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH..NOW ONLY 10-15 KT N OF 26N AND W OF 90W. REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT LINGER ACROSS S FLORIDA AND SE GULF AND APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING NW ATTM...EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND W-SW INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 24N88W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PORTION OF FRONT OVER WATER TO DRIFT N TODAY BEFORE BEING SHUNTED SSE AGAIN AFTER 00Z AND NEXT FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS BASIN. THIS NEW FRONT TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY SE INTO NW PORTIONS TODAY...REACHING ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TO JUST S OF CRP BY 12Z THEN CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE TO BRO AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STRONG PRES GRADIENT THIS MORNING BEHIND FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER WATER...WITH N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KT BY AFTERNOON AS FRONT PROGRESSES SE. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6-7 FT BEHIND FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING NW PORTIONS. MODELS THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG SFC HIGH SHIFTING SE ACROSS SRN MS VALLEY AND ALMOST ENTIRE GULF LIGHTING UP WITH 20-25 KT NE WINDS BY SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH SHIFTS E TO ALONG MID ATLC COAST LATE SUN THROUGH MON. INVERTED TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ACROSS W AND SW PORTIONS AHEAD OF FRONT FRI AND ALLOW FRONT TO RACE DOWN MEXICAN COAST AND PRODUCE NW WINDS 20-30 KT ACROSS MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH VERACRUZ FRI THROUGH SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT EXCEPT TO 10 FT OFF OF VERACRUZ. FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH TAMPA BAY LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR NAPLES AND S FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING. SEAS TO BUILD 7-9 FT WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 10 FT SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEHIND FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM THE EVERGLADES- UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR 23.5N96.5W SUN BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE ACROSS THE REGION MON-TUE WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...AND FOR A CHANGE I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS VERSUS ECMWF AS ENSEMBLES LOOK IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS W AND NW CARIB THIS MORNING AS PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES AND ABUNDANT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE W HALF OF BASIN AND INTERACT WITH TUTT JUST TO THE N AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN 70-90W. THIS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI BEFORE GRADUALLY WAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WAVES EXIT THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS BEHIND THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WHERE SEAS ARE 8-10 FT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. 42058 BACK UP TO 8 FT IN PAST COUPLE HOURS WHILE 42057 HOLDING AT 6 FT TONIGHT. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED WINDS NEAR 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 5-7 FT. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE E CARIB PAST 12 HOURS AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT EWD AND WEAKEN AND WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB HAS MOVED WWD. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH FRI WITH PRES GRADIENT THEN BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS W ATLC AND STRONG HIGH BEHIND IT BEGINS TO BUILD SE ACROSS THE W ATLC...AND DUE N OF THE REGION. THIS WILL EXPAND FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS INTO ALL BUT FAR E AND W CARIB...AND ALLOW FOR NOCTURNAL MAX OFF COLOMBIA TO APPROACH 30 KT AND 10 FT FRI AND SAT NIGHTS. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY THE PAST 24 HOURS TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS 5-7 6 FT. MODERATE E-NE TRADES WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS RANGING 4-6 FT THROUGH SUN AS STRONG N CENTRAL ATLC STORM SYSTEM MAINTAINS WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NW ATLC SHIFTING E AND GRADUALLY ABSORBING REMNANTS OF KATE AND DEVELOPING INTO LARGE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC. SRN TAIL OF UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO NE PORTIONS THEN TRAILS OFF TO W-SW AND SLOWLY MERGING WITH LINGERING TUTT THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO YUCATAN. THIS PUSHING COLD FRONT SSE ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF AREA...NOW FROM 31N65.5W TO ABOUT 29N73W WHERE IT THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND CONTINUES ON TO S SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WEAK HIGH SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD INTO ATLC WATERS OFF OF JAX. SE TRADE WIND SWELL MOVING THROUGH REGIONAL WATERS PAST FEW DAYS GRADUALLY FADING AND LEAVING SEAS LARGELY 3-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EXCEPT TO 5 FT SE WATERS. FRONT TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY NNW TODAY WHILE E PORTIONS MOVE ESE AND LAY ENTIRE BOUNDARY DOWN MORE E TO W BY 00Z. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE CONUS TONIGHT AND MOVE SE INTO NW WATERS FRI MORNING...REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SEBASTIAN INLET FRI NIGHT AND SINKING S SAT BEFORE STALLING SUN FROM ABOUT 26N65W TO S FLORIDA. STRONG 1030+ MB HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EXTEND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SAT AND THEN BEGIN TO FRESHEN ENE WINDS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEHIND FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. MODEST N SWELL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY BUILDING ENE WIND WAVES SUN. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN STRENGTH OF WINDS N OF STALLED FRONT LATE MON AND TUE WITH GFS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER DUE TO WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT ACROSS SE BAHAMAS...INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT AND SEAS 10-13 FT EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. HAVE TONED THIS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE MOMENT AND IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.