000 AGXX40 KNHC 111921 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 221 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA SW TO 23N85W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 22N92W. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIX OUT AS MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS NORTH OF THE FRONT GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3 FT. WESTERN PORTIONS ARE SEEING 4-6 FT SEAS IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE NW GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE NEXT FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND WILL EXTEND THE FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ON THURSDAY...FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 25N97W FRIDAY...AND BEGIN TO STALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WHILE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SAT THROUGH SUN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE FRONT LIKELY STALLS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND IT FRI THROUGH SAT. SEAS LIKELY TO BUILD 7-9 FT BEHIND FRONT SAT AND SUN. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E INTO THE ATLC MON WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS NW PORTIONS SUN NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE TRAILING END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NARROWING OVER WESTERN CUBA SW TO OVER GUATEMALA WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST BETWEEN 70W-90W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG EMBEDDED TSTMS GENERALLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 14N83W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI OR SAT AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER THE REGION. RECENT MORNING ASCAT PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO OCCASIONAL TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS EXTENDING BETWEEN 69W TO 82W. SEAS ARE RANGING 7-9 FT ACROSS THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WINDS WITH POCKETS OF 10 FT POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN BY LATE SAT FOR FRESHENING ENE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 8 FT. MEANWHILE THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO A RANGE OF 9-11 FT. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO SE CARIBBEAN. E-NE MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES PREVAIL WITH SEAS RANGING 6-7 FT AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANCE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATE...AND THE OTHER WEST OF KATE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N72W SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG S-SW WINDS N OF 29N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 63W. SEAS RANGE GENERALLY 4-6 FT OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER WINDS WITH 6-8 FT NOTED WITHIN THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND MOVE THE FRONT E-SE TO 29N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THU AND FLATTEN EVEN MORE BY FRI EXTENDING ALONG 26N. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 15- 20 KT SW WINDS ACROSS NE PORTIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND E TO SE TRADES 10-15 KT ACROSS SE PORTIONS. A NEW COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE WED NIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY EMERGE EAST OFF THE SE CONUS FRI MORNING...REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE FRI NIGHT AND STALLING ACROSS THE SE WATERS FROM NEAR 27N65W TO UPPER FLORIDA KEYS BY SUN AFTERNOON. STRONG 1030 MB HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EXTEND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SAT AND THEN BEGIN TO FRESHEN ENE WINDS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEHIND FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. MODEST NW SWELL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS WITH THIS FRONT AND MIX WITH BUILDING ENE WIND WAVES SUN TO PRODUCE SEAS 6-8 FT JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THEN AND 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE BEHIND FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.