000 AGXX40 KNHC 110847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 347 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING NE BEHIND NARROW TROUGH EDGING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA SSW TO GULF OF HONDURAS AND WILL TILT FURTHER EWD AND FLATTEN THROUGH THU AS PATTERN BECOME MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS N AM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRESENTLY SFC RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS SE U.S. INTO NE AND CENTRAL GULF PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH SE RETURN FLOW ALREADY SET UP ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS N OF 21N. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 4-5 FT ACROSS SE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS PER BUOY OBS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SE AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS S CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE LAKE SW TO 22.5N87W THEN WWD INTO SW PORTIONS WHERE IT BECOME ILL DEFINED. UPPER SUPPORT WILL RACE EWD ACROSS ATLC TODAY AND LEAVE FRONT TO LINGER AND MEANDER ACROSS S FLORIDA AND SE GULF THROUGH XXX BEFORE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NRN GULF LATE WED NIGHT...REACHING BIG BEND TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE FRI MORNING...WHERE IT WILL STALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WHILE PUSHING S THROUGH FLORIDA TO EXTREME S PORTIONS SAT NIGHT-SUN WHERE IT WILL STALL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND HAD BEEN FORECASTING FIRST BOUNDARY TO SHIFT INTO EXTREME S FLORIDA IN PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS...BUT NOW NOT SHIFTING MUCH FARTHER SE THAN CURRENT POSITION. 1030 MB HIGH BEHIND SECOND FRONT WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE THEN E WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND IT FRI THROUGH SAT THEN SHIFT S OF 26N ON SUN. SEAS LIKELY TO BUILD 7-9 FT BEHIND FRONT SAT AND THEN 8-10 FT SUN ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS UNDER GOOD VERTICAL MIXING. HIGH TO SHIFT E INTO ATLC MON WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP NW PORTIONS LATE SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE TRAILING END OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH UPPER RIDGING TO ITS E...AND INTERACTING WITH A PAIR OF LOW LAT TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SW CARIB WHERE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI OR SAT AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WWD ACROSS THE REGION AND A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SW CARIB TODAY THROUGH SAT. 02Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED FRESH TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS EXTENDING E TO ABOUT 65W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9-10 FT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING. ATLC RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC TO SHIFT EWD NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND ALLOW PRES GRADIENT TO WEAKEN MODESTLY ACROSS CARIB THU...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES BECOMING CONFINED TO MORE TYPICAL S CENTRAL LOCATION W OF 70W. 25 KT WIND SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIL WITH AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 64W ATTM TO MAINTAIN SEAS 7-8 FT THU AND FRI AS IT MOVES INTO SW CARIB. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEAKEN WILL PRODUCE TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF CARIB BY LATE SAT FOR FRESHENING ENE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 8 FT. ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY PAST 24 HOURS AS TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO SE CARIB. ELY TRADE WIND SWELL DOMINATING THE TROPICAL ATLC PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS PEAKED ACROSS THESE WATERS...WITH SEAS CURRENTLY 7-9 FT ATTM...AND DIMINISHING TO 6-7 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES AND SEAS 4-6 FT RANGE TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAKENED ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES E AND CENTRAL SUB TROPICAL ATLC. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. T.S. KATE RACING 30 KT AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ESE IN BEHIND IT ACROSS NW WATERS. FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N74W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WE HAVE REPOSITIONED THE FRONT ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM RECENT MAPS AS A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SE COASTAL WATERS. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT NW OF THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND VEER N TO NE TODAY AS WEAK RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS N FLORIDA. UPPER SUPPORT FOR FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD AND DRAG N PORTIONS OF FRONT E-SE ACROSS THE NRN WATERS WHILE SW TAIL OF FRONT MEANDERS NEARLY WHERE IT CURRENTLY LIES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA WITH 15-20 KT SW WINDS ACROSS NE PORTIONS AHEAD OF FRONT AND E TO SE TRADES 10-15 KT ACROSS SE PORTIONS TODAY. ELY TRADE WIND SWELL DOMINATING TROPICAL ATLC PAST COUPLE OF DAYS REACHED FLORIDA COASTS EARLY YESTERDAY AS ESE SWELL AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU. NEW COLD FRONT MOVING INTO GULF OF MEXICO LATE WED NIGHT WILL SNAG ACROSS UPPER MEXICAN COAST AND BEGIN TO LAY DOWN MORE ENE TO WSW THU NIGHT AS IT ENTERS SE U.S. COASTAL WATERS AND MOVES INTO NW WATERS OF DISCUSSION AREA EARLY FRI MORNING... REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE FRI NIGHT AND STALLING ACROSS SE WATERS FROM NEAR 27N65W TO UPPER KEYS BY SUN AFTERNOON. STRONG 1030 MB HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EXTEND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SAT AND THEN BEGIN TO FRESHEN ENE WINDS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEHIND FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. MODEST NW SWELL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS WITH THIS FRONT AND MIX WITH BUILDING ENE WIND WAVES SUN TO PRODUCE SEAS 7-9 FT JUST E OF BAHAMAS THEN AND 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE BEHIND FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.