000 AGXX40 KNHC 101930 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND EASTERN GULF. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 24N85W...THEN IS STATIONARY TO 23N95W. A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE FAR SW GULF. 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AS THE MAIN ENERGY SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...AND OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE FRI WITH NE WINDS REACHING 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 7 TO 8 FT. BY SAT...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SE GULF FOLLOWED BY STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE TRAILING END OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS REACHING INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF PANAMA AND BETWEEN HONDURAS AND JAMAICA. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 15 UTC...AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN HAITI AND NE COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE THU...AND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A THIRD LOWER AMPLITUDE AND LOWER LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY EARLY THU...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL KEEP A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE SUSTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER MAINLY THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE SAT FOLLOWED BY STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL ARE NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATION AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY WED. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. T.S. KATE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA/S GEORGIA COAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE AT LEAST THE MID AFTERNOON N OF 30N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W...ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES NORTH. STRONG SW WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD N OF 30N THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF T.S. KATE...REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE WED...THEN STALLING FROM 28N65W TO SE FLORIDA THU AND BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. WEAK RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BY THU NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N FLOW WILL FOLLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.