000 AGXX40 KNHC 090810 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS SW PORTIONS OFF OF VERACRUZ IN PAST FEW HOURS...OCCURRING W OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM AAF TO 25N90.5W T0 NEAR 20N96W THEN SSE AND INLAND ACROSS MEXICO. OUR ANALYSIS PAST FEW MAPS HAS BEEN A BIT TOO FAR SE ACROSS THE SW GULF AND ADJUSTED FOR 06Z MAP. WEAK LLVL LOW MOVING NNE ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH NOW NEAR 29N87W AND MAY FINALLY HAVE BECOME CONNECTED WITH FRONT. WINDS BEHIND FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TONIGHT WITH PEAK WINDS 20-30 KT SW PORTIONS S OF 25N...AND N THROUGH NW OF SFC LOW ACROSS NE PORTIONS. BUOYS IN THESE AREAS A FEW FT HIGHER THAN GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND NWPS CAPTURING THESE PEAKS BETTER. BUOY 42055 AT 10 FT WITH SEAS LIKELY PEAKING 12-13 FT OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ AT 00Z AND FALLING NOW. WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FURTHER TODAY AS LOW MOVES SLOWLY NNE AND INLAND AND FRONT MOVES A BIT SE. WILL ADJUST CLOSER IN LINE TO ECMWF BY DAY 3...WITH LOW MOVING UP EASTERN SEABOARD AND ALLOWING FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA...AND SW TAIL LIFTING N AS WARM FRONT TO ALONG ABOUT 25N. WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS TUE NIGHT THEN SHIFT EWD THROUGH WED AS DEEP LAYERED LOW MOVES E ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH OPENS UP ACROSS W PORTIONS FOR FRESH SLY RETURN FLOW. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WED NIGHT...EXTEND FROM MSY TO BRO THU MORNING...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO JUST S OF BRO FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED ERN CARIB TONIGHT...WHILE T.D. TWELVE EXITING REGION TO THE NW ACROSS THE S CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 82-83W POISED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY. SE FLOW ACROSS THE NE CARIB BACKING TO E JUST AHEAD OF CURRENT WAVE ALONG 64W...ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH ELY FLOW AND SEAS 5-7 FT. STRONG TRADES TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT S CENTRAL PORTIONS OFF OF NW VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY WWD TODAY AS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES WWD. THIS WAVE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CARIB THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE NEXT LOW LAT WAVE MOVES ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND INTO E CARIB. LONG FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL AND SUB TROPICAL ATLC HAVE GENERATED A BROAD WAVE FIELD OF EL TRADE WIND SWELL...CURRENTLY 8-11 FT TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND BLEEDING MODESTLY INTO CARIB. WIND AND SEAS HERE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE-WED. WEAK ATLC RIDGING BUILDING WWD ALONG ABOUT 26N TO NW BAHAMAS WED AND THU WILL FOCUS FRESH TRADES CENTRAL PORTIONS. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ALONG NW BOUNDARY...WHILE T.D. TWELVE MOVES QUICKLY WNW ALONG THE S CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TO THE LEFT OF GUIDANCE. LONG AND BROAD FETCH MENTIONED ABOVE HAS GENERATED WAVE FIELD THAT HAS SPREAD WWD TO ABOUT 70W WITH PEAK ENERGY AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO MOVE INTO SE PORTIONS TODAY 8-10 FT. FRONT ACROSS NW BORDER TO LIFT N TODAY AS T.D. TWELVE MOVES NW...THEN BEGINS TO TURN N TONIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO BUILD ACROSS SE PORTIONS BEHIND AND TO THE E OF THE TC THROUGH TUE AND MAINTAIN SEAS GENERALLY 7 FT AND GREATER. ECMWF IS FASTER AND TO THE NE OF GFS WITH T.D. TWELVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AND ALSO MOVES FRONT FARTHER SE WED-THU AFTER THE TC LIFTS OUT OF AREA...REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO UPPER FL KEYS BY 00Z THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.