000 AGXX40 KNHC 081851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 151 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE W-SW TO 29N89W THEN S-SW TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH MON. GALE FORCE WINDS WERE OBSERVED N AND NE OF 1011 MB LOW PRES ALONG FRONT NEAR 27N91W EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT SURFACE OBS INCLUDING OIL PLATFORM DATA INDICATE HIGHEST WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW GALE ALONG THE GULF COAST...SO DID NOT NEED TO EXTEND GALE WARNING THERE. MEANWHILE... NORTHERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT ALONG COAST OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEAR BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO 25N87W TO 19N95W BY MON NIGHT...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE AS A STATIONARY FRONT BY TUE. HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WED NIGHT...EXTEND FROM MOBILE BAY TO NEAR 24N98W THU...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 22N98W FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58W WILL MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ACTIVE WEATHER. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH MON...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA WEAKENS. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COMPLEX SCENARIO SHAPING UP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NW PORTIONS...A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING NW PAST SE BAHAMAS TURNS N THEN RECURVES NE OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK...WHILE A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS NEAR 65W. AN ELONGATED TUTT FROM BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA INTO N CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT NWD AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TUE...WHICH WILL INFLUENCE TIMING AND SPEED OF MID LEVEL VORTEX NEAR 22N71W. ACTIVE WEATHER FROM LOW PRES AREA WILL SPREAD NW INTO BAHAMAS THEN SHIFT N AND NE THROUGH TUE. MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS LATE MON THROUGH TUE. NHC INDICATES THIS FEATURE HAS MEDIUM CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...WITH ECMWF STILL FASTER IN LIFTING LOW AHEAD OF FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IN FAR NW WATERS WILL STRETCH EASTWARD ALONG 31N MON WHILE LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE OVER NORTHERN WATERS WHILE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MON. A SURGE OF E-SE TRADE WIND SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.