000 AGXX40 KNHC 070752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 252 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WWD INTO THE SE U.S. AND SHIFTING ESE TONIGHT...WEAKENING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE GULF. ELONGATED LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN ASSOCIATION WITH STATIONARY TUTT LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. RECENT 0254Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS SE WINDS AROUND 20 KT EXTENDING FROM N YUCATAN NW ACROSS N QUAD OF LOW. LATEST GFS DEPICTS A WARM OR STATIONARY FRONT DEVELOPING NEXT 24 HOURS BETWEEN ELONGATED LOW AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS SE TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAKE MODEST ADJUSTMENTS EACH OF PAST FEW DAYS ON EXACT MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF THROUGH MON...AS STRONG UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN BETWEEN 50W AND 100W YIELDING CONSTANT CHANGES WITH EACH MODEL RUN. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS 09-12Z THIS MORNING AND MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO S CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND UPPER MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SREF GALE PROBS STILL MODERATE ACROSS THE TEXAS OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...APPARENTLY BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING STATIONARY FRONT AND COLD FRONT...THEN SHOW MINOR GALE PROBS ALONG MEXICAN COAST SUN. GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST GALES STARTING 12Z SUN ALONG THE MID AND UPPER MEXICAN COAST AND SPREADING TO THE VERACRUZ AREA BY 18Z...AND ENDING TAMPICO AREA AROUND 18Z WHILE SOUTHERN MOST GALE CONTINUES THROUGH 06Z MON. 12Z RUN OF ECMWF DEPICTING SOME H85 VORTICITY SHEARING OFF OF ELONGATED LOW AND MOVING NE TO OFFSHORE OF MOUTH OF MS BY TONIGHT...WHERE IT SUGGESTS CHANCE FOR BRIEF NE GALES...SOMEWHAT IN THE AREA OF THE SREF PROBS...WHILE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER FEATURE THERE AND SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO 30 KT. THUS CANNOT RULE THIS POSSIBILITY OUT BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST IT ATTM. WW3 ONLY BUILDING SEAS TO 11 FT ACROSS TAMPICO AREA AND TO 10 FT OFF OF VERACRUZ WHILE NWPS GOES TO 15 FT AND 14 FT RESPECTIVELY. NWPS APPEARS A BIT HOT AND WE HAVE TONED IT DOWN BUT WW3 CERTAINLY A FOOT OR TWO LOW...DESPITE SHORT DURATION OF GALES. FRONT TO SHIFT SE INTONE PORTIONS MON AND TUE...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM BIG BEND TO SW PORTIONS AND WASHING OUT SW...BUT VARYING SOLUTIONS OF LINGERING LLVL VORT OFF OF MOUTH OF MS YIELD SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE ATTM. ENSEMBLES MORE IN LINE WITH A WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE FOLLOWED A SLOW NE MOTION OF LOW INTO NE GULF MON-TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TROPICAL WAVE SUGGESTED ALONG 72W ATTM BY MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND TPW ANIMATIONS...AND DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AFTER INTERACTION WITH LARGE TUTT LOW RESIDING ACROSS ERN CARIB. LLVL VORT AND TROUGHING TRAILING THE WAVE STILL E OF THE ISLANDS AN NEARING 60W ATTM WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LOOKING POISED TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NE CARIB THROUGH MON. TUTT LOW TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BUT GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS NE CARIB THOUGH MON. INVERTED LLVL TROUGH FORECAST BY MODELS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PUERTO RICO-MONA PASSAGE AND INTO ATLC THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING THEN SHIFT NW THROUGH TUE AND MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS. FRESHENING ENE TRADES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NE AND N CENTRAL CARIB BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE...AND ACROSS N HALF OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND ATLC COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPED AND ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY E-SE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. ESE TRADES EXPECTED SUN AS WAVE SHIFTS WWD INTO W CENTRAL CARIB AND LLVL TROUGH SHIFTS NW TO N OF HISPANIOLA. WIND AND SEAS TO INCREASE OFF OF VENEZUELA AND ABC'S SUN THEN EXPAND NWD SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND LLVL TROUGH SHIFT NW INTO BAHAMAS...ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER SE INTO CENTRAL ATLC...AND NEXT LOW LAT TROPICAL WAVE RACES INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. FRESH TRADES TO EXPAND N AND WWD TO 80W BY MON NIGHT WITH WIND AND SEAS OFF OF COLOMBIA REACHING 25-30 KT AND 10 FT. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE SINKING SLOWLY SE AS HIGH PRES LOCATED E OF BERMUDA SHIFTS E-SE. OLD FRONT REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS SE PORTIONS E OF 70W UNDER INFLUENCE OF ELONGATED TUTT LOW EXTENDING INTO BAHAMAS. VERY ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER TO DOMINATE THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND SPREAD NW INTO SE PORTIONS OF AREA NEXT 24 HOURS AS LLVL TROUGHING AND TUTT CONTINUE TO INTERACT. RECENT 0112Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT ESE WINDS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SEAS WERE 8-10 FT...WHILE WINDS E NEAR 20 ACROSS ATLC WATERS OFF OF NE CARIB TO HISPANIOLA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS PR AND ADJACENT ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT WWD TO MONA PASSAGE THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NW TO BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE. LONG ELY FETCH FROM CENTRAL ATLC TO 65W SETTING UP WITH FRONTAL ZONE WILL GENERATE SEAS 9-11 FT MOVING INTO SE PORTIONS TONIGHT INTO SUN. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO NW WATERS SUN BEFORE STALLING AND DRIFTING NW MON. MODELS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS WITH TROUGH NEXT WEEK AS IT LIFT N THEN NE OUT OF S CENTRAL BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.