000 AGXX40 KNHC 061925 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND MUCH OF THE GULF REGION WHILE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES HAS MOVED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR FRESH E WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE PART OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-4 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR 4-6 FT THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH SAT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS BY SAT MORNING WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR SHIFTING IT SOUTHEASTWARD BY SAT EVENING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH 28N90W TO 25N96W TO 19N95W SUN MORNING THEN WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 25N93W TO 22N97W TO 18N94W MON MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING MON NIGHT. STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OFFSHORE ZONES GMZ117 BY 12Z-18Z SUN...AND ACROSS GMZ023 BETWEEN 18Z-00Z ALSO ON SUN. THE LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES ARE 30-40 PERCENT FOR 34 KT WINDS...WHILE THE GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO 30 PERCENT. A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE FOR ZONE GMZ117 WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW GULF LATER ON SUN. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT TIME, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WOULD MAKE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH OR SE AND AGAIN TOWARD THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS MOVE W OF AREA. THIS MORNING...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE FROM 18N-21N W OF 84W... WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS. IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A SECOND COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE ALSO INTERACTING WITH A TUTT LOW IS ACROSS THE E CARIB ALONG 64W/65W. FARTHER E...THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 56W/57W. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING NEAR 69W/70W BY SAT MORNING...75W/76W BY SUN MORNING...AND NEAR 79W/80W BY MON MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SAT...REACHING THE SE BAHAMAS ON SUN. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES(THE UPPER LOW...THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE TROUGH). DEVELOPMENT, IF ANY, DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. A THIRD LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 40W/41W WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN...WITH FRESH TRADEWINDS WITH AND BEHIND IT...AND A BROAD WAVE FIELD OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN E TRADE WIND SWELL GENERATED BY LONG ELY FETCH ACROSS THE ATLC. SMALL AREAS TO 10 FT EXPECTED CENTRAL PORTIONS DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 35N60W WILL SHIFT SE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...THE TROPICAL N ATLC MAINLY N OF 15N AND THE NE CARIBBEAN... ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO BLOW THROUGH NE CARIB PASSAGES. THE TRADEWINDS WILL INCREASE N OF WAVE AXIS SAT AND SUN AND MAINLY AFFECT CARIB WATERS OF GREATER ANTILLES AND PASSAGES...AND THEN S CARIB BEHIND WAVE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N60W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REACHING A POSITION NEAR 32N53W BY SAT MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BRING A FRESH TO STRONG E BREEZE TO THE E-CENTRAL AND SE WATERS ON SAT...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE S WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES THE SE BAHAMAS. A LOW PRES PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP PROBABLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY MON. FOR NOW...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHER SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MON DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW WATERS SUN FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THEN...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK AND N OF THE AREA ON MON AS A LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF NE FLORIDA OR THE GEORGIA COAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.