000 AGXX40 KNHC 051919 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 219 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA SHOW MAINLY MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS...EXCEPT IN THE SE GULF...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SE GULF. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT...EMERGING INTO THE SW GULF FRI. A LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 18N86W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY FRI. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A COLD FRONT...WHICH WOULD MAKE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY. BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/LOW PRES ARE MOVING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF AND THE WATERS JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THE TSTMS. CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO AROUND 6-7 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW WATERS BY SAT MORNING WITH A REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSH SHIFTING IT SOUTHEASTWARD BY SAT EVENING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH 27N90W TO 23N96W TO 19N95W BY SUN MORNING THEN WILL WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 26N90W TO 18N94W BY MON MORNING. STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS ON SUN. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OFFSHORE ZONES GMZ117 BY 12Z SUN...AND ACROSS GMZ023 BETWEEN 18Z-00Z ALSO ON SUN. THE LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO UP TO 30-40 PERCENT FOR 34 KT WINDS...WHILE THE GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HEADLINE GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN FOR THESE ZONES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WELL-DEFINED LATE SEASON TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 86W S OF 22N. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 18N86W. BUOYS 42056 AND 42057 LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE REPORTING SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 8-9 FT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS MOVED FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO SE MEXICO DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THE TSTMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WERE NOTED NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA... JUST S OF HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS MORNING. BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS...THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SE WINDS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD COVERING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 13N- 17N BETWEEN 77W-81W BUT MUCH OF THESE WINDS COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SPREADING FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MOVING INTO THE SW N ATLC ON FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 50W/51W WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE TONIGHT...REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY N OF 14N/15N IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N-NE OF THE REGION WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT JUST NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N63W TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC ON FRI. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SE AND PASS E OF BERMUDA ON FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BRING A FRESH TO STRONG E BREEZE TO THE E-CENTRAL AND SE WATERS ON FRI...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE S WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA LATE THIS WEEKEND. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. FOR NOW... FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH AT LEAST MON NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW WATERS SUN FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THEN...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK AND N OF THE AREA ON MON AS A LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF NE FLORIDA OR THE GEORGIA COAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.