000 AGXX40 KNHC 050652 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 152 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN MEDIUM. LATEST NIGHT TIME INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS AND BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS ALL INDICATED A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE SE TIP OF LOUISIANA THROUGH 24N91W TO 18N92W. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THE BRIEF WINDSHIFT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THE SAME OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS...EXCEPT IN THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT (THU NIGHT)...EMERGING INTO THE SW GULF FRI...THEN MOVING INTO MAINLAND MEXICO BY EARLY SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW AND W CENTRAL GULF SAT MORNING. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS ALSO SHOWING MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS...ALONG WITH OFFSHORE ZONES GMZ011 BY 00Z SUN...GMZ117 BY 06Z SUN...AND EVENTUALLY GMZ023 BY 12Z SUN THROUGH MON MORNING. THE LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO UP TO 40-50 PERCENT FOR 34 KT WINDS...WHILE THE GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER. THE ECMWF CAPS WINDS AT 30 KT WHILE THE UKMET DOES INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL HEADLINE GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THESE ZONES. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO 28N88W TO 22N95W TO 18N94W BY 00Z MON...THEN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE ONCE AGAIN TO THE E-SE THROUGH MON NIGHT ALTHOUGH IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WELL-DEFINED LATE SEASON TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 22N84W TO 10N83W. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN HONDURAS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A POCKET OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THE TSTMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THE REST OF THIS MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...JUST S OF HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 12N. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE LATE-SEASON TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 50W/51W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BY LATE FRI MORNING...THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BY FRI AFTERNOON... REACHING THE MONA PASSAGE BY SAT AFTERNOON...REACHING HAITI BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS JAMAICA MON AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY THROUGH FRI...INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG N OF 14N/15N IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N-NE OF THE REGION WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-10 FT BY FRI NIGHT WITH THE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN AFTERNOON WHILE LINGERING 7-10 FT FRESH SWELL SLOWLY DECAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...THEN MEDIUM. CURRENTLY A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 31N66W TO 27N73W. THIS TROUGH IS DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE AXIS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH NE FLORIDA BY FRI EVENING. FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH 6-7 FT SEAS. STRONG CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES WITH RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W BY LATE TONIGHT (THU NIGHT). THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND COVERING THE WATERS S OF 28N E OF 70W. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT BY FRI NIGHT AS A RESULT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY SAT NIGHT AS THE HIGH AND RIDGING BACK AWAY TO THE E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO NEAR THE SPACE COAST OF FLORIDA BY 00Z MON WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH 12Z MON BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE N INTO EARLY MON. MEANWHILE A STRONG LATE-SEASON TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MOVING W-NW OF 65W BY SAT MORNING...THEN REACHING 70W BY MON MORNING... THEN REACHING ALL THE WAY TO 74W INCLUDING THE SE BAHAMAS BY TUE MORNING. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY NOT SHOWN DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.