000 AGXX40 KNHC 040751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 251 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N86W TO 24N90W TO 22N93W IS DRIFTING TO THE W-NW. RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS W OF THE FRONT...AND E-SE WINDS E OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT IN THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU WITH E-SE MODERATE WINDS DOMINATING THE BASIN BY THU MORNING. A LATE SEASON TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF THU SHIFTING NW ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS SAT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WIND FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN WITH A SHARP INVERTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ALONG 84W. MEANWHILE A WELL-DEFINED LATE SEASON TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER S OF HISPANIOLA WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS IN THE LEE OF THE WAVE. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND MAINLY 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 6-8 FT JUST S OF HISPANIOLA WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS ARE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W-NW APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE THU NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THE PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING... WITH ANOTHER FRESH TO STRONG PULSE EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING TROUGH CURRENTLY E OF 55W WILL LIFT W-NW THROUGH FRI AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG ON THE NW SIDE OF THE TROUGH BY FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7-9 FT. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT W-NW OF THE AREA SAT. NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE N THIS WEEKEND WITH 7-10 FT SEAS FORECAST BY SUN MORNING ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE WATERS. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A HIGH PRES RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...4-6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FAR NE WATERS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH FRI WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRESHENING WINDS OVER THE NE WATERS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT E OF 70W BY THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH SAT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SAT ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NE WATERS BY SUN MORNING. STRONG NE WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.