000 AGXX40 KNHC 030757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO THE S CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO 18N83W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED EXCEPT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 21N ON THE SW SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER 22N91W. MEANWHILE 1016 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE FAR NW GULF NEAR 28N96W. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MID- WEEK WITH MODERATE E-SE FLOW DOMINATING THE BASIN BY WED NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI...INCREASING TO FRESH NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TROUGHING WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT ENTERING SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG N-NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALONG WITH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 76W... WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS E OF 76W WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH WESTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE S OF HISPANIOLA BY THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING BY THU MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT MODERATE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH 4-7 FT. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1021 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST SW OF BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW-W TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE WINDS N OF 27N ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS...WITH MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS S OF 27N ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NE CORNER BY WED MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT N OF 27N E OF 72W BEHIND IT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT BY THU MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BASIN BY FRI MORNING WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE WATERS FRI E OF 73W...WITH MODERATE CONDITIONS MAINTAINING W OF 73W. WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO SE-S BY SAT MORNING AS THE ORIENTATION OF ATLC RIDGING SHIFTS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW PORTION BY SUN MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS POSSIBLE BEHIND IT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.