000 AGXX40 KNHC 021821 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 121 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH GLOBAL MODELS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE LOW PRES WAS OVER SE ALABAMA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF FROM 30N87W TO 24N89W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 18N94W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW N TO NW WIND SUBSIDING TO MODERATE OVER THE SW GULF W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF E OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE TO THE S CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N89W TO 18N94W. SURFACE RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD TONIGHT...FORCING THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN...MAKING THE FRONT TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PERSIST E OF THE TROUGH AND WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS RUNS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF SOME TIME ON SAT...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH GLOBAL MODELS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALONG WITH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 12N. SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS ARE W OF 74W WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT E OF 74W OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ARE OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS. THE HIGHER SEAS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH SWELL...WILL MOVE SE TONIGHT AND AWAY FROM THIS PORTION OF THE ATLC BASIN. THE FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES E OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS WILL EXPAND TO THE WEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TIGHTENS. WINDS MAY PULSE TO NEAR 25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST S OF HISPANIOLA...AND N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E TO THE ATLC E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MID WEEK TO THE END OF THE WEEK. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH GLOBAL MODELS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1021 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 32N66W WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SW TO EASTERN FL. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 27N E OF 75W BY WED NIGHT. THE AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS WILL EXPAND ELSEWHERE S OF 27N E OF 77W BY FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH RIDGING INTENSIFYING TO THE NORTH. SEAS MAINLY FROM 4-7 FT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT IN THE NW CORNER WHERE THEY WILL BE 2-4 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CORNER OFF THE FL/GA BORDER WED...STALLING OUT AND THEN DISSIPATING BY THU. MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW CORNER BY SAT...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY AS OF THIS TIME. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.