000 AGXX40 KNHC 020609 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 109 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1009 MB LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED IN THE N CENTRAL GULF JUST S OF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW THROUGH 24N93W TO 18N94W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL REPORTED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE N CENTRAL GULF JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GALE WARNING FOR ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06 UTC...HOWEVER FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITHIN 60 NM OF VERACRUZ THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AS ATLC RIDGING PREVENTS ANY ADDITIONAL FORWARD PROGRESS. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE W AS EITHER A REMNANT TROUGH OR WEAKENING WARM FRONT ON TUE THROUGH WED. MODERATE E-SE FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALONG WITH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT E OF 74W AND 1-3 FT W OF 74W...EXCEPT HIGHER IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE WINDS ARE UP TO 20 KT. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK... TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY BY MID-WEEK WHICH WILL HELP TRADES TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS MAY PULSE OCCASIONALLY TO 25 KT JUST S OF HISPANIOLA AND IN AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... AND NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS OF 5-7 FT THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT BY MID-WEEK. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1021 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 32N67W TO NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER. OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FROM 22N TO 27N E OF 70W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS WESTWARD WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 27N E OF 70W BY THU EVENING...THEN ELSEWHERE S OF 27N E OF 77W BY FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT IN THE NW CORNER WHERE THEY WILL BE 2-4 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION BY WED MORNING...STALLING ALONG 80W BY WED AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY WASHING OUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.