000 AGXX40 KNHC 011853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 153 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1215 UTC ALTIMETER PASS REVEALED SEAS TO 9 FT ACROSS THE SW GULF THIS MORNING W OF A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 1600 UTC EXTENDED FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N92W TO 22N93W TO 19N95W. OBSERVATIONS OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MID MORNING INDICATED WINDS OF 31KT...AND THUS IT IS NOW FORECAST THAT THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THEREFORE...HIGH SEAS FORECAST CALLS FOR GALE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME BEYOND THE CURRENT TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS THE 1200 UTC GFS IS NOW CLOSER IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE STRONGER WIND REGIME OVER THE SW GULF W OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 8-11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ DURING THE GALE WARNING EVENT. ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF...A SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE SURFACE LOW S TO 22N. PATCHY FOG CONTINUES N OF THE LOW AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND INLAND OVER THE SE US. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL OVER THE SW GULF ON MONDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT STALLING OUT FROM AROUND 30N82W TO 24N89W TO 18N93W BY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD WESTWARD TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WHICH WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE FRONT AND RETROGRADE THE REMNANTS BACK TO THE WEST. BY WED EVENING...MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN...PERSISTING THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS THIS MORNING AT 1208 UTC INDICATED FRESH E TO SE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SINCE THAT TIME THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING THESE WINDS HAS LIKELY WEAKENED AS THE FRONT OVER THE GULF HAS PROGRESSED EASTWARD...HELPING TO ERODE THE SW PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NE OF THE AREA. MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST HERE AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. THE ONLY WIND CAVEAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD COULD BE FRESH WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST APPROACHES. THIS N...S ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SUPPORTING CONVECTION FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND SURROUNDING WATERS. ONGOING CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH MONDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES WESTWARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-8 FT. SIMILAR WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE APPROACHES. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH WINDS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST AS WELL ON FRI. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AM SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS S OF 22N MAINLY NEAR CONVECTION. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS SE TO HISPANIOLA...AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WILL MAINTAIN E TO SE WINDS THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT IN THE NW PORTION WHERE MODELS BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE SE US COAST AND OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA/S GEORGIA ON TUE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT QUICKLY...WITH THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESIDE WITHIN 180 NM OFFSHORE THE FL/GA BORDER THROUGH WED BEFORE DISSIPATING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.