000 AGXX40 KNHC 010749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 249 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT FIRST 12 HOURS WHERE GFS INITIALIZED TOO LOW. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 20-30 KT NW-N WINDS W OF A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 29N94W TO ANOTHER 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 26N95W TO 21N97W. THESE WINDS WERE SAMPLED 5-10 KT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST GFS INITIALIZED... WHICH WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST ECMWF. BUOYS AND PLATFORMS IN THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF E OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN REPORTING PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N91W TO 26N93W TO 22N94W TO 19N96W BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SETTING UP OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...THEN REACHING FROM 30N90W TO 26N91W TO 22N93W TO 18N94W BY THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE OFF OF VERACRUZ EXCEPT FOR THE SREF WHICH SHOWS AROUND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES. GIVEN THAT THE GFS INITIALIZED TOO LOW WITH WINDS THIS MORNING...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 18Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT FOR NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ DURING THE GALE EVENT. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY STALL IN THE EASTERN GULF BY BY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE W-NW AS EITHER A WEAK WARM FRONT OR REMNANT TROUGH THROUGH WED. RETURN E-SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN BY WED EVENING... PERSISTING THROUGH FRI MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALONG WITH SHIP REPORTS MEASURED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHICH WAS NOT CAPTURED WELL BY MODEL GUIDANCE THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED NEAR THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS AND THESE WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-8 FT. SIMILAR WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 5-7 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED DATA INDICATE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT S OF 22N W OF 70W WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS WERE NOTED. SEAS ARE MAINLY 3-5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH SEAS COMPRISED OF SOME LINGERING NE AND SE SWELL. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN RETURN FLOW... EXCEPT IN THE NW PORTION WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK INTO ZONE AMZ111 SE OF GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA BY LATE TUE MORNING. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AROUND 60-120 NM OFFSHORE THEN WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS THE ATLC RIDGING HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL FORWARD PROGRESS. RETURN E-SE WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.