000 AGXX40 KNHC 311838 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM 2 BUOYS OVER THE NW GULF BETWEEN 90W AND 95W CONTINUED TO SHOW 30 KT SUSTAINED S TO SE WINDS AS OF 1600 UTC...WITH LIKELY FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS WERE THE RESULT OF RETURN FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US AND A COLD FRONT NOW EMERGING ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOW DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER INLAND TX MOVES NE OVER LOUISIANA...HELPING TO ERODE THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THUS WEAKENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WATERS. ELSEWHERE FROM THE DIMINISHING AREA OF GALE WINDS...MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT OVER THE NE GULF THIS MORNING HAS RAPIDLY MOVED NORTHWARD AND NOW IS INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...EXTENDING SE TO N CENTRAL FL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES E OF THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF VERACRUZ SUNDAY MORNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WINDS OVER THE SW GULF BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG OFFSHORE VERACRUZ...REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NE GULF TO THE W PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON MONDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT DUE TO ATLC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WESTWARD. THE FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY MODERATE E TO SE SURFACE WINDS DOMINATING THE BASIN BY TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST WHICH WILL PULSE FRESH AND ISOLATED STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. OVERALL MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE CARIBBEAN. BY MID WEEK MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THESE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN MID TO LATE WEEK. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ARE OCCURRING S OF 25N WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE OF FL. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL N OF THE BAHAMAS AND NE OVER THE ATLC WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS ON MONDAY AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE W ATLC. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE N FL COAST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 95W... GALE WARNING SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.