000 AGXX40 KNHC 310714 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 314 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS USED TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED SOLID AND NUMEROUS GALE FORCE SE-S WINDS IN THE NW GULF WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING. EVEN HIGHER WINDS WERE NOTED HOWEVER THOSE ARE SUSPECT DUE TO DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD BLOSSOMED IN THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN 999 MB LOW PRES OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 27N100W AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S. STATES. A FRONT THAT HAD MOVED INTO THE SE GULF HAS RETREATED BACK TO THE NW-N AS A WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF AND WRAPPING BACK INTO THE LOW OVER MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS. THE LOW OVER MEXICO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THIS EVENING REACHING FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BY SUNRISE SUN. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO 25-35 KT BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...CMC AND UKMET HAVE ALL BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ...HOWEVER THE SREF 34 KT PROBABILITIES STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF FROM 18Z SUN THROUGH 06Z MON. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN IN THE EASTERN GULF MON AS ATLC RIDGING PREVENTS ANY FURTHER FORWARD PROGRESS ALONG WITH WAINING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE BASIN TUE THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS USED TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS ARE PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG RIGHT OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...TWO AREAS WHERE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH ANOTHER ROUND ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE S OF HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY 20 KT DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. MEANWHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT THIS MORNING SUBSIDING MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS USED TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PAIR OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE ANALYZED N OF 27N. SCATTEROMETER AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARYING WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. MEANWHILE SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING AT 4-6 FT ACROSS AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO MIXED NE AND SE SWELL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL WASH OUT COMPLETELY BY SUN MORNING WITH E-SE WINDS...5-10 KT N OF 25N AND 10-15 KT S OF 25N PREVAILING SUN THROUGH MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW PORTION BY TUE MORNING BUT QUICKLY IS HALTED FROM 31N78W TO 29N81W BY TUE EVENING AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES HOLDS IN PLACE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.