000 AGXX40 KNHC 300718 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 318 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT ARE LOCATED IN THE SE GULF IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE TROUGH. 1015 MB HIGH PRES IS TO THE N IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27.5N88W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E TO W AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 28.5N90W AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE NW-N SHIFTING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL EXPAND TO COVER THE ENTIRE BASIN WHILE INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NW GULF. THE FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT AS A RESULT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 29N93W TO 19N95W BY SUN MORNING...FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY ALABAMA TO 18N93W MON MORNING... THEN WILL STALL AND BECOME A REMNANT TROUGH BY TUE MORNING IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. RETURN FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE THE BASIN YET AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH RESPECT TO THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT IN THE SW GULF NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ WHERE MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOW POSSIBLE AROUND SUNSET SUN FOR THE AREA S OF 21N W OF 94W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS PERSISTING FOR AROUND 6-12 HOURS AT BEST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERALL GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS...EXCEPT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG RIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 3-5 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG TONIGHT (FRI NIGHT)...AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRADES WILL THEN DIMINISH NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG S OF HISPANIOLA AND THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...OCCASIONALLY INCREASING TO FRESH. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH ON MON INCREASING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION AND WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 6-8 FT IN THEIR WAKE. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO 29N75W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO FLORIDA BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PERSIST NEAR THE FRONT. OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING PREVAILS E OF THE FRONT WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE FRONT...MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BERMUDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY SAT MORNING AND DISSIPATE LATE SAT. HIGH PRES AND E-SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE BY SUN MORNING ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS LATE MON NIGHT. CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES WILL HINDER MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS NEXT FRONT FORCING IT TO STALL IN ZONE AMZ111 IN THE NW PORTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.