000 AGXX40 KNHC 290722 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 322 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF. A 1014 MB HIGH PRES IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 25N90W PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND LATER TODAY. THEN...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NW GULF WATERS AND MOVE BACK INLAND BY THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES TOWARD THE NE GULF. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW GULF LATE FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF ON SAT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9-10 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE SW GULF ON SUN. AT THAT TIME...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THEN...IT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO BUILD TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL QUICKLY SHIFT E AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT. A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELL SHOULD REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI...BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 6-8 FT FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SUBSIDING. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N79W TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT WITH THIS FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N73W TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING...FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS FRI EVENING AND FROM 31N61W TO NEAR 26N75W BY SAT EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR NE WATERS BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 28N64W AND STRONG HIGH PRES EXITING THE NE OF THE UNITED STATES. EXPECT SEAS OF 8-10 FT EARLY TODAY OVER THE FAR NE WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS AND A NE SWELL COMPONENT. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS JUST N OF PUERTO RICO ATTACHED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW WATERS BY FRI EVENING AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE N WATERS. BY SUN...HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE N WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF THE TRADE WINDS S OF 23N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.