000 AGXX40 KNHC 251852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 252 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS FOR TODAY THROUGH MON AFTERNOON PERIODS...THEN LATEST MWW3 GUIDANCE FOR REMAINDER PERIODS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FAIRLY ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE GULF ZONES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A LOW PRES CENTER WITH PRES OF 999 MB WAS ANALYZED NEAR 29N94W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO 25N94W AND TO INLAND MEXICO AT 19N95W AT 18Z. BUOY OBSERVATIONS W OF THE FRONT ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE NORTHERLY GALE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 30-35 KT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATED FFA STATION PLATFORMS SITES RECORDING HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 KT AT TIMES. AN ASCAT-B PASS FROM 1544 UTC DEPICTED A BROAD SWATH OF NW 30-40 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THESE WINDS LOCATED TO THE N OF 23N. SEAS WITHIN THE GALE WIND AREA IN THE RANGE OF 10-13 FT. THE MAXIMUM OF SEAS IS BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS 42019 AT 28N95W AND BUOY 42020 AT 27N97W. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SE WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT TO 89W AND N OF 26N WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE. WINDS ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT ARE SE 15-20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE SEEN ON BOTHER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT...AND WELL TO THE NE OF THE LOW. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING MAINLY SUPPORTED BY A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTAIN MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS/SEAS FROM PREVIOUS ONES WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A N NE TRACK TOWARDS THE AREA OF SW LOUISIANA TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 25N92W AND TO 19N91W. NW TO N GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE STRONG SE WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE TO NEAR 30N93W 1000 MB BY EARLY MON MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 25N90W TO 19N91W. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEAR 31N91W BY EARLY ON TUE WITH OCCLUDED FRONT FROM LOW TO 31N89W...THEN COLD FRONT FROM 31N89W TO 26N86W AND WEAKENING TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MON...HOWEVER STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF IT BEFORE DIMINISHING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON WED...AND TO JUST SE OF THE GULF BY LATE THU AS RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE FAR NE GULF EARLY ON THU NIGHT...THEN IS REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO POSSIBLY 8 FT. WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY GENTLE E TO SE IN DIRECTION THU AND FRI WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1450 UTC SHOWED GENTLE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT... EXCEPT FOR E-SE WINDS IN DIRECTION N OF 15N W OF 84W AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. CURRENT BUOYS OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS MAINLY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTER HIGHER SEAS OF 3-4 FT IN THE S CENTRAL AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN. HIGHER SEAS OF 4-5 FT IN NE SWELL ARE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS AND WAVES IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUE AND WED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A SLIGHTER TIGHTER GRADIENT BEHIND A TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THAT PART OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS ENHANCEMENT THEN DIMINISHES ON THU. A WEAKNESS IN HIGH PRES RIDGING LATE THU INTO FRI WILL ALLOW FOR GENTLE E WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH JUST SOME SMALL POCKETS OF MODERATE E WINDS. A PULSE NE SWELL WILL INTRODUCE SEAS OF 6-7 FT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST SE OF THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER OVER THE SE PART N CAROLINA EXTENDS SSE TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN IS ALLOWING FOR RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN. BUOYS 41049 AT 27.5N63W IS INDICATING A NE SWELL COMPONENT WITH COMBINED SEA STATE OF 6-7 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. THE NE SWELL OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS A RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE BASIN...AND BASICALLY BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH WINDS BECOMING E WITH MOSTLY A GENTLE INTENSITY. SEAS ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN WILL BE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE NE PART WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 6-8 FT AS THE RIDGE IS REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES EXITING THE NE PART OF UNITED STATES. THEN...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA BY EARLY THU MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N70W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR NW CUBA BY LATE FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.