000 AGXX40 KNHC 250725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS MON. A LOW PRES SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COASTAL BEND. THE LOW CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT COVERING MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 22N W OF 93W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND THE SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY N OF 22N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 85W. THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TODAY AND INLAND OVER THE SW LOUISIANA COAST THIS EVENING...THEN NE ACROSS SE LOUISIANA BY MON EVENING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH LATE TODAY...REACHING FROM NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING...FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA MON EVENING...AND FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE EVENING. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BY TUE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON WED. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. SEAS BUILDING IN THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MON EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO WED AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL GULF. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT AND MAINLY N OF 26N THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-12 FT TODAY SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES INLAND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS. THE BUOYS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT. HIGHER SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC DUE TO A NE SWELL COMPONENT. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS AND WAVES IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELL SHOULD REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 31N60W TO ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW SITUATED NEAR 28N61 SSW TO NEAR 23N62W WHERE IT BECOMES A FRONTAL TROUGH TO JUST N OF PUERTO RICO. BUOY 41049 AT 28N63W IS REPORTING N WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE STILL NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31N60W. THIS LOW PRES WILL PULL NE AND AWAY OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. THE AREA OF 6-7 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS A RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE BASIN...AND BASICALLY BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH WINDS BECOMING E WITH MOSTLY A GENTLE INTENSITY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS... AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE NE PART WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 6-8 FT AS THE RIDGE IS REINFORCING BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES EXITING THE NE PART OF UNITED STATES. THEN...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA BY EARLY THU MORNING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.