000 AGXX40 KNHC 241703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS DUE TO A TIGHT PRES BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AN ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT INDICATED FRESH E-SE WINDS NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCE BY A THERMAL TROUGH. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE E OF 88W...EXCEPT FOR 5-6 FT BETWEEN 88W-92W AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 25-30 KT BY TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 OR 12 FT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUN EVENING. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT NEAR GALE OR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WATERS E AND W OF THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE OVER THOSE WATERS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE SW LOUISIANA COAST MON NIGHT...AND NNE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON MON NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH LATE SUN REACHING FROM NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN EVENING...AND WEAKEN MON NIGHT AS IT REACHES FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA S TO NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FORECAST ZONES GMZ011 AND THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF GMZ017 DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN OVER THE FAR SW PART OF ZONE GMZ023 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING IN THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MON EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO WED AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SAME IN WIND SPEEDS. THE BUOYS AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT N OF ABOUT 15N E OF 80W...AND ALSO S OF 18N W OF 80W. HIGHER SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC DUE TO A NE SWELL COMPONENT. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS AND WAVES IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 31N61W SSW TO NEAR 23N63W WHERE IT BECOMES A FRONTAL TROUGH TO JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO. BUOY 41049 AT 28N63W IS REPORTING N WINDS OF 15- 20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 FT...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS WITHIN 120 NM TO ITS E. THIS SAME PASS RECORDED HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT TO THE N OF 28N AND E OF 62W. A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 68W IS HELPING TO TRIGGER OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER SOME PORTIONS OF ZONES 115...119 AND 121. THE LOW WILL PULL NE TO NEAR 33N61W BY EARLY ON SUN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH DRIFTING EASTWARD AND PASSING TO THE N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH REMNANT WILL THEN DRIFT BACK WESTWARD SUN AND MON TOWARDS THE GENERAL AREA OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THAT AREA. THE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT TONIGHT...TO 5-6 FT SUN AND TO 4-5 FT SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED AS RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE BASIN...AND BASICALLY BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH WINDS BECOMING E WITH MOSTLY A GENTLE INTENSITY. SEAS NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTER HIGHER...IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...GALE WARNING SUN. GMZ013...GALE WARNING W OF 90W N OF 27N SUN. GMZ017...GALE WARNING N OF 25N SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.