000 AGXX40 KNHC 240716 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 316 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCE BY A THERMAL TROUGH. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER W WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY TO 20-25 KT JUST OFFSHORE THE TX COAST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT OVER THE NW WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND EARLY ON SUN. NEAR GALE OR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH LATE SUN. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH LATE SUN REACHING FROM NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN EVENING...AND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FAR EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON EVENING. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FORECAST ZONES GMZ011 AND GMZ017 DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS ZONE GMZ023 IN THE AFTERNOON. A GALE WARNING IS GOING TO BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. BUILDING SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE S WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT AROUND 12-13 FT EARLY ON SUNDAY IN NW GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE MON AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PER A RECENT ASCAT PASS AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ONLY 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH 5 TO 6 FT DUE TO E SWELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR 29N62W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THESE WINDS ARE AFFECTING MAINLY THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NE DRAGGING THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY EASTWARD NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TODAY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN ON SUN AND A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SE WATERS THROUGH TUE. BY THAT TIME...SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF AREA. A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH WINDS OR WEAKER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.