000 AGXX40 KNHC 231840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES BASED UPON OUR WIND GRIDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MODERATE NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS GULF IS INDUCING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE E TO SE WINDS. WESTERN BUOYS SHOWED 8 FT THIS MORNING...BUT THESE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 6-7 FT BY 18Z. GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS FRONTAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY DUE TO HURRICANE PATRICIA MAKING LANDFALL LATER TODAY IN MEXICO...BUT INSTEAD INDIRECTLY RELATED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA BEING ENTRAINED INTO THIS NEW BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW WILL STRADDLE THE TEXAS COAST SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING NE INTO LOUISIANA ON MONDAY. THE LOW DEEPENS QUICKLY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...SO IT MAY GET SOME FORCING FROM BOTH THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE CONTRAST AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE DEEPENING DOES NOT LAST LONG...AS FILLING IS SUGGESTED BY MONDAY. SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT WILL REACH EITHER NEAR GALE OR GALE SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW/FRONT WITH NEAR GALE OR GALE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF EITHER PORTION DOES REACH GALE...SUCH CONDITIONS WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. NEWLY ARRIVING GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE ONLY A 10% OF EACH OCCURRING. HAVE KEPT THE SYSTEM AT NEAR GALE FOR NOW...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED UPWARD. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE S WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT AROUND 12-14 FT ON SUNDAY IN NW GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES BASED UPON OUR WIND GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE QUIESCENT CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WITH TRADEWINDS ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE. WAVE HEIGHTS ONLY 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH 5 TO 6 FT DUE TO E SWELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES BASED UPON OUR WIND GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR 31N60W 1009 MB TO SECOND LOW PRESSURE NEAR 27N65W 1008 MB TO 23N66W. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUOY 41049 IS NOW SHOWING STRONG BREEZE SW WINDS WITH 10 FT SEAS. THE LOWS AND FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTHEASTWARD WITH WINDS CONTINUING FRESH TO STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AND FRESH TO NEAR GALE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS IN OUR AREA SHOULD PEAK AROUND 12 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO COMBINED WIND WAVES AND SOME NE SWELL. BY SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF AREA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE WINDS FRESH BREEZE OR WEAKER FOR ENTIRE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CWL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.