000 AGXX40 KNHC 230748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 348 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVES PARAMETERS...WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...PARTICULARLY N OF 24N W OF 92W AND NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON FRI...WITH A BRIEF RELAXING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING MOSTLY 15-20 KT E-SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT THE RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT JUST OFFSHORE THE TX COAST ON SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT OVER THE NW WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND EARLY ON SUN. NEAR GALE OR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS OF 12-13 FT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER EARLY ON SUN. CURRENTLY...THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS ONLY 5 PERCENT ACROSS THE NW GULF WHILE THE GEFS PROBABILITIES REACH 10 PERCENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE TO INLAND OVER SW LOUISIANA MON NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH LATE SUN REACHING FROM NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN EVENING...AND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL/FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVES PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH NE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE LEE OF CUBA PER SCATTEROMETER DATA...MAINLY N OF 20N E OF 84W BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 6 FT ARE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRI. WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA WILL DIMINISH ON FRI...AND NO MAJOR CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL/FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SW FROM 31N60W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 26N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE FORECAST ZONE AMZ115. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST PART OF THE AREA AS THE LOW PRES MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST REGION. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING ON SAT. THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE NE FRI AND SAT...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO. BY SUN...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE WATERS. A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.