000 AGXX40 KNHC 221645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1245 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SCT RW/ISOL TS CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE NW GULF WATERS AND WILL BE CARRIED FOR ONLY FIRST 12 HOURS IN WEATHER GRIDS. A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW GULF AND IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY SCT RW/ISOL TS ACROSS WATERS S OF 24N W OF 94W. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED W OVER THE NW GULF WATERS WHERE ELEVATED PLATFORMS REPORTED SE 25-30 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THIS MORNING. LOWER ANEMOMETERS ARE IN THE 25 KT RANGE... BUT CARRIED 20-30 KT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EASTERLY 15- 20 KT FLOW OBSERVED WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A BRIEF RELAXING OF GRADIENT LATE FRI SUPPORTING MOSTLY 15 KT FLOW...BUT THEN QUICKLY TIGHTENS AGAIN FRI NIGHT WITH 15-20 KT E-SE WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE GULF ON SAT MORNING. EXPECT THE RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT JUST OFFSHORE THE TX COAST LATE SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ON MOVING A SURFACE LOW E ACROSS TX ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE THE TX COASTAL BEND ON SUN-MON. THE LOW SHOULD DRIFT N WHILE TRAILING A WEAK COLD FRONT S ACROSS THE SW GULF. THE GFS SUGGESTS 30 KT WINDS OVER E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS WEAKER...AND A BLEND PRODUCES 20-25 KT CYCLONIC OVER THE NW GULF FROM LATE SUN THROUGH LATE MON WITH THE LOW MOVING INLAND NE TX ON MON NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MED CONFIDENCE. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED RW/TS CONTINUE ACROSS THE N- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 10- 16N ALONG 62W WILL MOVE SLOWLY W REACHING THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN-MON. EXPECT A 10-15 KT NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...AND A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS TODAY. A SCREAMING EAGLE EVIDENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT NE-ENE WIND SHIFT DEPICTED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE 12Z ANALYSIS AND ISOLATED TS ADDED TO WEATHER GRIDS. OTHERWISE GENTLE-MODERATE TRADES FORECAST THROUGH PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS.. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SW FROM 31N57W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN ASSOCIATED BROAD BAND OF DENSE OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCT RW/ISOL TS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 270 NM OF A LINE FROM 31N60W TO 20N73W...ALONG WITH NE 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE N OF 25N WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM W OF THE FRONT... RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 6-11 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 3-5 FT SEAS SW OF BAHAMIAN CHAIN AND THROUGHOUT THE EXPOSED BAHAMIAN WATERS. SURFACE LOWS ANALYZED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 26N65W AND 22N69W WILL BOTH SHIFT ENE AND DRAG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E ON FRI AND EARLY SAT WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING AGAIN FROM 31N58W TO 25N65W TO THE HAITI ON SAT NIGHT WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON. CYCLONIC 20-25 KT FLOW EXPECTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE NORTHERN LOW NEAR 29N63W ON FRI AND WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW NEAR 31N62W ON FRI NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ACROSS WATERS N OF 30N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT LATE SAT WHILE NE-E 10-15 KT FLOW SETS UP EVERYWHERE W OF THE FRONT LATE SAT THROUGH LATE MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.