000 AGXX40 KNHC 220801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 401 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE W GULF FROM 26N96W TO A 1010 MN LOW IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW IN THE SW GULF WHILE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE NW BASIN. THE TROUGH WILL MEANDER THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...THEN WILL DISSIPATE. A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN THE SE CONUS EXTENDING A RIDGE SW TO THE NW GULF AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF 20-25 KT SE WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXPECT E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT TO THE N-CENTRAL STATES SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW TO TEXAS WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG MEXICO MOVES E OVER WESTERN GULF WATERS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SUPPORT WINDS OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MED CONFIDENCE. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NW AND SW BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. OVER THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH TAIL REACHING E CUBA SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. SHOWERS IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SE THU-FRI...STALLING AGAIN ON SAT. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 10N-15N ALONG 60W WILL MOVE W INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN TODAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG 70W SAT NIGHT. AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT N OF THE AREA INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH IN THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS REDUCING THE TRADES FROM FRESH TO MODERATE CONTINUING ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS.. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N52W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 24N65W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NNE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 57W AND 66W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 60W AND 73W...RESULTING IN SEAS OF 7-11 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND WILL DRAG THE FRONTAL SEGMENT TO THE S OF THE LOW E ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA AREA. A STRONGER LOW WILL DEVELOP N OF 31N AND DRAG THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT E AGAIN SAT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AGAIN ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N57W TO HISPANIOLA ON SAT NIGHT...AND THEN DRIFT NNW ON SUN TO MON MORNING. NE 20-25 KT WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH THU MORNING...THEN WILL BECOME VARIABLE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WHEN IT MOVES N OF THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.