000 AGXX40 KNHC 211651 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1251 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ISOL TS CURRENTLY CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE W-CENTRAL GULF WATERS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW TO ALONG THE TX COAST TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRI. A NW-SE ORIENTATED TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE SW GULF IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCT RW/ISOL TS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS TROUGH WILL MEANDER THROUGH THU AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS MAINLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES ACROSS SE CONUS AND THIS BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF 20-25 KT E WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS INTO THIS LATE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NW GULF TONIGHT...AND THEN RE-OCCUR AGAIN BRIEFLY ON THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT E-SE 15-20 KT CONDTIONS ACROSS MOST AREAS ON FRI AND SAT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX SUPPORTING E-SE 10-15 KT CONDITIONS ON SUN AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 27N97W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 20N97W ON SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. MED CONFIDENCE. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW AND N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED TS. EXPECT SKY/WEATHER CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NW PORTION...BUT CONTINUE OVER THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS SE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU-FRI. A TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 10-16N ALONG 58W WILL MOVE W INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THU...WITH GUIDANCE NOW HANGING ONTO THE TROUGH AND MOVING IT W TO ALONG 72W ON SUN. EXPECT A 10-15 KT NE- E-SE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...AND A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THU. OTHERWISE GENTLE-MODERATE TRADES FORECAST THROUGH PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS.. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SW FROM 31N54W TO NE CUBA. AN ASSOCIATED BROAD BAND OF DENSE OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCT RW/ISOL TS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG WITH NE-E 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 330 NM NW OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 3-6 FT SEAS SW AND THROUGHOUT THE EXPOSED BAHAMIAN WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT W TONIGHT WITH THE NE FLOW W OF THE FRONT DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT ON THU. STILL EXPECT A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE SOUTHERN WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 22N71W THIS EVENING...AND MOVE SLOWLY NE ALONG THE FRONT EFFECTIVELY DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SEGMENT TO THE S OF THE LOW E ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA AREA. A STRONGER LOW WILL DEVELOP N OF 31N AND DRAG THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT E AGAIN ON FRI AND SAT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AGAIN ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N56W TO HAITI ON SAT NIGHT...AND THEN DRIFT W ON SUN-MON. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT ON SAT...THEN MOSTLY NE 15 KT FLOW ON SUN AND MON WITH SMALL EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20 KT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.