000
AGXX40 KNHC 200801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
401 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. 

STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED. A TROUGH IN THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO ALONG WITH RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO SUPPORT 20 TO 25
KT NW TO N WINDS S OF 21N W OF 93W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE
NIGHT AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS ENE AND LOW PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...RESULTING IN A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE SW GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 24N87W AND ENHANCES ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE SE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BECOMING
DIFFUSE BY TUE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING MOVING NW ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO THROUGH THU AFTERNOON WITH WINDS WELL BELOW GALE WARNING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND.

HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN S OF 21N W
OF 82W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN BASIN. WEATHER
SUPPORTED BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE...CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES W OVER GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTENSIFY INTO A LOW PRESSURE OVER E BAY OF CAMPECHE
WED MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IN THE NW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA. LOW
PRES OVER N COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES S OF
14N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W THROUGH WED NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO N OF ANDROS ISLAND WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY TUE NIGHT AND MEANDER THROUGH WED
NIGHT WHEN IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 145 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND WITHIN 310 NM AHEAD
OF IT W OF 67W. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
EAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. SHIP AND BUOY OBS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 10-11 FT SEAS OVER LARGE AREA E OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. STRONG HIGH WILL SHIFT E-NE THROUGH WED AND
WEAKEN...ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TO RELAX. GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A TROUGH FORMING ALONG REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
LATE WED THROUGH THU. TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH THU...GRADUALLY LIFTING NNE E OF 70W
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.