000 AGXX40 KNHC 191715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SUPPORTING STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY... EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE OR WED. A TROUGH IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO SUPPORTING 30 TO 35 KT NW WINDS S OF 21N W OF 94W. GALE FORCE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE SW GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N88W...THEN STATIONARY TO 22N93W. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI MOVING NW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH WINDS WELL BELOW GALE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDEPSPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN BASIN. WEATHER SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING UNTIL A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEAKENS AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS E. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA. LOW PRES OVER N COLOMBIA SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIB THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N65W TO MIAMI FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 24N LATE TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. SHIP AND BUOY OBS SHOW 10-11 FT SEAS OVER LARGE AREA E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STRONG HIGH WILL SHIFT E-NE THROUGH WED AND WEAKEN...ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TO RELAX. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A TROUGH FORMING ALONG REMNANTS OF THE FRONT THU THROUGH FRI...AND GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD E OF 70W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.