000 AGXX40 KNHC 190800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE TO S OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA...SE GULF AND A PORTION OF THE SW GULF TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRES CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE N PART OF BASIN TO ENHANCE PRES GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW ALONG MEXICO TO THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WHERE IT MAINTAINS GALE WARNINGS NEAR THE AREA OF VERACRUZ. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN WITH BUILDING SEAS...RANGING FROM 5-10 FT TO A MAX OF 12 FT ACROSS SW PORTIONS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER SHOWERS IN THE SE GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING. GALE WARNING TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TO 30 KT TUE MORNING THEN GRADUALLY FALLING TO 2O TO 25 KT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MOVING NW THROUGH THIS AREA COULD TIGHTEN GRADIENT WED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF GALE WARNINGS IN COASTAL AREAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W... BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. CONVECTION IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND PERSISTS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE UPPER RIDGE GENERATING DIFFLUENCE STALLS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE W OF 83W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...BECOMING STRONG IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO NW PORTIONS FROM 30N67W TO NEAR PALM BEACH FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN WILL MEANDER FROM ABOUT 30N58W TO 25N68W WITH TAIL REACHING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEFORE DISSIPATING WED NIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N61W TO 25N68W ENHANCING SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 175 NM AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. BROAD ZONE OF 25 KT NE WINDS WITH AREAS OR NARROW ZONES TO 30 KT ARE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY THROUGH TUE...GENERATING LARGE AND ROUGH WAVE FIELD SLAMMING INTO FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS COASTS. PEAK SEAS IN THE 12-13 FT RANGE EXPECTED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE...8-11 ELSEWHERE BEHIND FRONT. STRONG ERN U.S. HIGH TO SHIFT E-NE WED AND BEGIN TO ALLOW PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.