000 AGXX40 KNHC 170756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 356 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS...AHEAD OF A STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER IOWA WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SSW ALONG MEXICO. THIS NEW FRONT FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THAT COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS PRODUCE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SSE IN THE BASIN. SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REACH UP TO 13 FT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE IS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BASIN. EXCEPT FOR THE REGION IN THE SW GULF WITH GALE FORCE WINDS...A STRONG NELY BREEZE WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W... ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS BEING AMPLIFIED BY A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUE MORNING...AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA...THE SW AND SE GULF. WITH A NEW FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF A STRONG HIGH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS INCREASED...THUS SUPPORTING A STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WILL PULSE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS MAINLY IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA THROUGH WED BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTERMITTENTLOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN. PRES GRADIENT TO WEAKEN ACROSS E HALF OF BASIN SAT NIGHT AS ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND RETREATS NE WHILE COLD FRONT ENTERS W ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N66W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT BEING GENERATED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG HIGH CENTERED IN IOWA AND BUILDING S ACROSS THE GULF WILL DRIFT ESE TODAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW BASIN LATE TODAY THROUGH MON MORNING...RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN. A LONG FETCH OF NE TO ENE WINDS WILL ENTER THE AREA NW OF FRONT AND INTO FLORIDA COASTLINE...THROUGH THE STRAITS AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF 30 KT WINDS WITH GALE WARNING FORCE GUSTS BETWEEN 72W AND FLORIDA MON MORNING WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 10-13 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.