000 AGXX40 KNHC 161856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 256 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WSW INTO THE SE GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS SE U.S. AND MOVING S ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THIS GRADIENT SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SW GULF. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SACRIFICIO ISLAND ALREADY SHOW WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT WHICH VERIFIES WHAT GFS WAS FORECASTING FOR THIS TIME. WINDS TURN MORE NLY IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE...DIVING THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WHERE ONGOING GALE EVENT CONTINUES. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING S AND SW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BLASTS A SECONDARY FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY SAT MORNING FURTHER ENHANCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THIS TO COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING MONSOONAL GYRE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA-YUCATAN-TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND A PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W... ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A DEVELOPING MONSOONAL GYRE SPANNING CENTRAL AMERICA CENTERED ON ABOUT 80W. CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA AND SW GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA. THIS GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PULSING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS SUPPORTING THIS WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO STRENGTHENS AND REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO LINGER JUST N OF YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FRESH BREEZE. PRES GRADIENT TO WEAKEN ACROSS E HALF OF BASIN SAT NIGHT AS ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND RETREATS NE WHILE COLD FRONT ENTERS W ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N69W SW TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W THEN CONTINUES W ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING S OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BLAST A SECOND FRONT INTO THE NW BASIN LATE SAT THROUGH MON MORNING...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN. A LONG FETCH OF NE TO ENE WINDS WILL ENTER THE AREA NW OF FRONT AND INTO FLORIDA COASTLINE...THROUGH THE STRAITS AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF 30 KT WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS BETWEEN 72W AND FLORIDA MON MORNING WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RIVERA/STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.