000 AGXX40 KNHC 151911 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 311 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. WEAK FRONT ACROSS GULF FROM SANIBEL ISLAND AREA TO BROWNSVILLE HAVE BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT...WITH WIND TURNING MORE NLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS AND DIVING THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC REGION WHERE ONGOING GALE EVENT PERSISTS. MODEST RIDGE ACROSS GULF COAST STATES WILL FRESHEN E-NE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...THEN RIDGE IS SQUASHED BY FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING AS STRONG HIGH BUILDING S AND SE OUT OF GREAT LAKES REGION BLASTS A SECOND FRONT INTO N COASTAL WATERS EARLY SAT MORNING AND BEGINS TO FURTHER ENHANCE GRADIENT ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. THIS TO COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING MONSOONAL GYRE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA-YUCATAN- TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND A PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS TO PRODUCE NEAR GALES OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ BY SAT MORNING...INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO GALE FORCE AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT. SREF BEGINS TO SHOW LOW PROBS FOR GALES THERE BY 12Z SAT WHILE GEFS NOT PICKING UP ON IT...POSSIBLY DUE TO RESOLUTION LIMITATIONS. BROAD STRONG WIND FIELD TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN MON-TUE FOR VERY HIGH SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER UPPER TROUGH BISECTING GULF NE TO SW...AND TROPICAL WAVE REACHING E COAST OF HONDURAS. CNVTN WILL SHIFT SLOWLY W ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS AND CENTRAL AMERICA NEXT FEW DAYS AND COMBINE WITH TROPICAL WAVE TO EVOLVE INTO MONSOONAL GYRE SPANNING CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT EPAC. WIND SURGE BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTING WNW AND AIDING IN PLACING CENTRAL CARIB WIND MAX OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA... WITH BUOY 42058 NOT CLIMBING TO 10 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IN PRESSURE PATTERN AND WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WHEN BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT IN NW PART. TRADES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FORECAST TO PULSE TO MAX OF 25 KT AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI. PRES GRADIENT TO WEAKEN ACROSS E HALF OF BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND RETREATS NE AS COLD FRONT ENTERS W ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N71W ACROSS NW BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA AND MEANDERING ATTM. BROAD AND ELONGATED ZONE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED E OF SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK AND BENIGN COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY E-SE INTO NW PORTIONS AND EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE E-SE THROUGH LATE FRI...REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO S FL WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEST HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE E-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRI THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY STRONGER HIGH MOVING SE INTO SOUTHERN STATES TO SIGNIFICANTLY TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT BEHIND A REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUN. THIS SECOND FRONT TO GRADUALLY MERGE WITH OLD MEANDER BOUNDARY BY MON...WITH LONG FETCH OF NE TO ENE WINDS SPILLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NW OF FRONT AND INTO FLORIDA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE STRAITS. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF 30 KT WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS BETWEEN 70W AND FLORIDA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.