000
AGXX40 KNHC 150720
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM TAMPA BAY FL
TO BROWNSVILLE TX WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE
E-NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
FRONT. MODEST RIDGE ACROSS GULF COAST STATES WILL FRESHEN E-NE
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH FRI EVENING. STRONG HIGH
BUILDING OUT OF GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND TO BLAST
SECOND FRONT INTO N COASTAL WATERS SAT MORNING AND FURTHER ENHANCE
GRADIENT ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN...WITH WINDS OFF VERACRUZ INCREASING
TO 30 KT SAT AND POTENTIALLY TO GALE FORCE BY SAT NIGHT. SREF
AND GEFS SHOWING MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF GALE WARNINGS SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER UPPER
TROUGH BISECTING GULF NE TO SW. SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY W ACROSS
GULF OF HONDURAS AND CENTRAL AMERICA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIB ALONG ABOUT 73W MOVING W WITH ASSOCIATED
WIND SURGE AROUND 20 KT N OF 12N AND SHIFTING W AS WELL...KEEPING
MAX SEAS IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN A BIT N OF CLIMO POSITION OFFSHORE
OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN PRESSURE PATTERN AND WINDS EXPECTED
UNTIL THU NIGHT...WHEN BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT IN NW PART. TRADES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FORECAST TO PULSE TO MAX OF 25 KT AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N71W ACROSS
NW BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA. BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED E OF SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY AND WEAKEN WITH
LITTLE EFFECT. MODEST HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE E-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRI
THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY STRONGER HIGH MOVING SE INTO SOUTHERN STATES
TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT BEHIND A REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUN
FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E SUN
NIGHT AND MON BUT STRONG HIGH OVER U.S. EAST COAST INDICATES GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF 30 KT WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 70W
AND FLORIDA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.