000 AGXX40 KNHC 141832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 232 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED HAS SETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND SHIFTING EWD TO NEAR 26N89W AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY SWD INTO THE BASIN...CURRENTLY FROM FL BIG BEND TO SE TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH PEAK WINDS ENE NEAR 15 KT AND SEAS 3-4 FT ACROSS EXPOSED PORTIONS OF BAY OF CAMPECHE. N OF BOUNDARY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY N TO NE AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS TO 3 FT OFFSHORE OF BIG BEND. NO CHANGES TO RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE WITH BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SINK SLOWLY SWD AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS ALONG 25-26N NEXT 48 HR OR SO...WHILE MODEST RIDGE ACROSS GULF COAST STATES PROMOTES FRESHENING NE TO E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH FRI EVENING. THERMAL TROUGH TO PREVAIL ALONG COASTAL WATERS FROM WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO TAMPICO VCNTY AND ALLOW FOR FRESHENING NWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY EARLY FRI AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD S ACROSS NE MEXICO. STRONG HIGH BUILDING OUT OF GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND TO BLAST SECOND FRONT INTO N COASTAL WATERS SAT MORNING AND FURTHER ENHANCE GRADIENT ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN...WITH WINDS OFF VERACRUZ INCREASING TO 30 KT SAT AND POTENTIALLY TO GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SREF AND GEFS SHOWING MODEST PROBS OF GALES THEN ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS W AND NW CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANYING AN AMPLIFYING LLVL TROUGH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE BETWEEN 2 TROPICAL WAVES...AND DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH BISECTING GULF NE TO SW. THIS WEATHER AND TROFFING TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS...W CARIB...AND CENTRAL AMERICA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MODELS SUGGESTING LINGERING LOW PRES AND MONSOONAL CIRCULATION SPANNING CENTRAL AMERICA THAT MAY EVENTUALLY YIELD A TC NEXT WEEK. ERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIB ATTM ALONG ABOUT 73W MOVING WNW 15-20 KT...WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE AROUND 20 KT PREVAILING N OF 12N AND SHIFTING WNW WITH WAVE...KEEPING MAX SEAS IN CARIB A BIT N OF CLIMO POSITION OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN PRES PATTERN AND GENERAL WIND FIELD EXPECTED UNTIL THU NIGHT...WHEN BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT IN CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS. TRADES ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO MAX OF 25 KT AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDS FROM 31N71W ACROSS NW BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA...WHILE RIDGE PREVAILS TO THE SE OF IT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND PRODUCING MODERATE E-NE TRADES S OF 23N E OF 72W. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS AND INTO NW WATERS...MOVING SE AND STALLING AS IT REACHES FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY FRI MORNING. MODEST HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THU AND FRI BEHIND FRONT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE E-NE WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY STRONGER HIGH MOVING SE INTO SOUTHERN STATES TO FURTHER TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT SUNDAY BEHIND NEW RELATIVELY DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN SAME MANNER AS CURRENTLY BOUNDARY SUN- MON...WHERE THEY WILL GRADUALLY MERGE BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE MON. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF 30 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BETWEEN 70W AND FLORIDA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.