000 AGXX40 KNHC 140645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26N94W DRIFTING NWD SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WILL PUSH E-SE INTO NORTHERN WATERS TODAY. FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THU MORNING WITH LITTLE EFFECT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEHIND BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT FRESH NE WINDS THU THROUGH SUN WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 6-8 FT BY THE WEEKEND BETWEEN 23N-27N. COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG SE MEXICAN COASTAL ZONES WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND BUILDING RIDGE AFTER FRI AND INDUCE STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE VERACRUZ COAST OF MEXICO...WITH GFS INDICATING 20-30 KT WINDS SAT THROUGH SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 83W. WEATHER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WNW NEXT 24-48 HRS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W PRODUCING SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS W OF WAVE AXIS. EXPECT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE REST OF CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE SUPPORTS MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION... YIELDING SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 25 KT NEAR 13N73W. LITTLE CHANGE IN PRES PATTERN UNTIL THU NIGHT...WHEN BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT IN CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS. TRADES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO MAX OF 25 KT AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W ACROSS NW BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA. RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING MODERATE E-NE TRADES S OF 23N E OF BAHAMAS. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING SE AND SLOWLY WEAKENING...THEN STALLING AS IT REACHES FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY FRI MORNING. MODEST HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THU AND FRI BEHIND FRONT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE E-NE WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY STRONGER HIGH MOVING SE INTO SOUTHERN STATES TO FURTHER TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT SUNDAY BEHIND THE STALLED BOUNDARY WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF 30 KT WINDS BETWEEN 70W AND FLORIDA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.