000 AGXX40 KNHC 131816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 216 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25.5N90W AND DRIFTING WWD YIELDING LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. OLD BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE OF YUCATAN ENE TO KEYS TO MEANDER AND DISSIPATE NEXT 24 HRS. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S-SE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS REMAINING NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FRONT TO SINK GRADUALLY S AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND REACH MORE E TO W ALONG 25N BY FRI MORNING WILL IT WILL DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEHIND BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT FRESHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT ON SAT FROM ABOUT 23N-27N. COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG SE MEXICAN COASTAL ZONES WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND BUILDING RIDGE LATE FRI THROUGH SUN TO INDUCE STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE VERACRUZ COAST OF MEXICO...WITH GFS INDICATING 20-30 KT WINDS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL PORTIONS TODAY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH SETTLING NE TO SW ACROSS SE GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN...AND BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO EPAC ALONG 91-92W. THIS WEATHER TO SHIFT SLOWLY WNW NEXT 36-48 HRS WHILE LLVL TROFFING AMPLIFIES ACROSS W PORTIONS W OF 80W AND BECOMES INVOLVED WITH EPAC MONSOONAL CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE...CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND INDUCING VERY MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB YIELDING SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES TO 25 KT S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W PER A RECENT ASCAT PASS. LITTLE CHANGE IN PRES PATTERN EXPECTED HERE THROUGH 48 HOURS UNTIL FRONT SINKS S ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO AND RIDGE BEHIND IT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS ERN CARIB TODAY ALONG ABOUT 63-64W EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 70W BY 12Z WED AND 77W AROUND 12Z THU THEN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA FRI. MODEST MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS THE E CARIB THROUGH WED. TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO MAX OF 25 KT AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO THE NW BAHAMAS WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE LINES OUT AHEAD OF IT FIRING BRIEF SHEARED CNVTN. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS SW TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND PRODUCING MODERATE E TO ENE TRADES S OF 24N E OF BAHAMAS TO 55W. 14Z ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED GFS WAS MOSTLY CORRECT WITH FRESH SLY WINDS N OF 29N JUST AHEAD OF FRONT...ABUT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY WED AND MOVING SE AND SLOWLY WEAKENING...REACHING BERMUDA TO EXTREME SE FLORIDA BY FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL. MODEST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THU AND FRI BEHIND FRONT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE E-NE WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE THU AND FRI...THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY 1030+ HIGH MOVING SE INTO CENTRAL U.S. AND GREAT LAKES REGION SAT-SUN TO FURTHER TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT BEHIND OLD STALLED BOUNDARY ON SUN WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25-30 KT POCKETS BETWEEN 70W AND FLORIDA SUN NIGHT-MON WITH SEAS BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 8-10 FT DURING THAT TIME. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.